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A Note on Krugman's Liquidity Trap

Author

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  • Stefano Di Bucchianico

    (Department of Economics, Roma Tre University)

Abstract

The 1998 stylized model of Krugman constituted a ground-breaking contribution explaining the long lasting Japanese stagnation as the consequence of a ‘liquidity trap’ situation featuring a negative natural interest rate. Our critique to such a proposal will focus on three aspects. First, we will question the logical structure of the model, providing an alternative interpretation of its closure. Second, we will argue that aggregate demand has no role in the explanation, as the cause for the persistent excess of savings over desired investment is the result of a supply side shock plus a financial rigidity on the nominal interest rate. Finally, we will discuss the restrictive assumptions needed to get a negative natural interest rate, the concept that lies at the foundation of the entire theoretical apparatus. Our conclusion is that the explanation offered within the 1998 contribution does not provide a satisfying rationale for the Japanese stagnation.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Di Bucchianico, 2018. "A Note on Krugman's Liquidity Trap," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2018-17, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ums:papers:2018-17
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    File URL: http://www.umass.edu/economics/publications/2018-17.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lance Taylor, 2014. "Paul Krugman's 'liquidity trap' and other misadventures with Keynes," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 2(4), pages 483-489, October.
    2. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    3. Lawrence H. Summers, 2015. "Demand Side Secular Stagnation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 60-65, May.
    4. Mauro Boianovsky, 2004. "The IS-LM Model and the Liquidity Trap Concept: From Hicks to Krugman," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 36(5), pages 92-126, Supplemen.
    5. Lawrence H Summers, 2014. "U.S. Economic Prospects: Secular Stagnation, Hysteresis, and the Zero Lower Bound," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 49(2), pages 65-73, April.
    6. Takuji Kawamoto & Tatsuya Ozaki & Naoya Kato & Kohei Maehashi, 2017. "Methodology for Estimating Output Gap and Potential Growth Rate: An Update," Bank of Japan Research Papers 17-05-31, Bank of Japan.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stefano Di Bucchianico, 2019. "A critical analysis of the secular stagnation theory," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0245, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Liquidity trap; Japanese stagnation; natural interest rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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