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Demand and Technology Determinants of Structural Change and Tertiarisation: An Input-Output Structural Decomposition Analysis for four OECD Countries

  • Maria Savona
  • André Lorentz

The paper provides fresh empirical evidence on the relative role of changes in final and intermediate demand as affecting the changes in the sectoral structure of advanced economies. These latter have led, over the last three decades, to the massive growth of service sectors. The paper draws upon the recently released OECD Input- Output (I-O) tables. The empirical analysis is based on an I-O Structural Decomposition Analysis carried out on 13 manufacturing and service sectors, from the end of 1960s to the end of 1990s. Although heterogeneous sectoral patterns emerge, we find that the structural changes leading to the growth of services, particularly KIBS (Knowledge Intensive Business Services), are mainly (domestic) demand-led, whereas the role of foreign trade remains marginal even in the last decade. We infer that, even in the case of the most technologically advanced service sectors, (domestic) demand constraints affect the degree of exploitation of technological opportunities and the patterns of growth.

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Paper provided by Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg in its series Working Papers of BETA with number 2006-01.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2006-01
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  1. Barro, R.J., 1989. "Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries," RCER Working Papers 201, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  2. Fagerberg, Jan, 1994. "Technology and International Differences in Growth Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 1147-75, September.
  3. Montobbio, Fabio, 2002. "An evolutionary model of industrial growth and structural change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 387-414, December.
  4. Bart Verspagen, . "Evolutionary macroeconomics: A synthesis between neo-Schumpeterian and post-Keynesian lines of thought," The Electronic Journal of Evolutionary Modeling and Economic Dynamics, IFReDE - Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
  5. Jan Fagerberg, 2000. "Technological Progress, Structural Change and Productivity Growth: A Comparative Study," Working Papers 5, Centre for Technology, Innovation and Culture, University of Oslo.
  6. André Lorentz & Patrick Llerena, 2004. "Co-Evolution of Macro-Dynamics and Technological Change : an Alternative View on Growth," Revue d'Économie Industrielle, Programme National Persée, vol. 105(1), pages 47-70.
  7. Baumol, William J, 1972. "Macroeconomics of Unbalanced Growth: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 150, March.
  8. Michael Peneder & Serguei Kaniovski & Bernhard Dachs, . "What Follows Tertiarisation? Structural Change and the Role of Knowledge-based Services," WIFO Working Papers 146, WIFO.
  9. Baumol, William J. & Batey Blackman, Sue Anne & Wolff, Edward N., 1984. "Unbalanced Growth Revisited: Asymptotic Stagnancy and New Evidence," Working Papers 84-02, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  10. George Korres, 1996. "Sources of structural change: an input-output decomposition analysis for Greece," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(11), pages 707-710.
  11. Schettkat, Ronald & Yocarini, Lara, 2003. "The Shift to Services: A Review of the Literature," IZA Discussion Papers 964, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  12. Giovanni Dosi & Christopher Freeman & Richard Nelson & Gerarld Silverberg & Luc Soete (ed.), 1988. "Technical Change and Economic Theory," LEM Book Series, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy, number dosietal-1988, August.
  13. Patrick Llerena & André Lorentz, 2004. "Cumulative Causation and Evolutionary Micro-Founded Technical Change. On the Determinants of Growth rate Differences," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 55(6), pages 1191-1214.
  14. Giulio Cainelli & Rinaldo Evangelista & Maria Savona, 2006. "Innovation and economic performance in services: a firm-level analysis," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 30(3), pages 435-458, May.
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