Wage Indexation, Central Bank Independence and the Cost of Disinflation
Recently, Fischer  and Posen  demonstrated empirically that countries with less independent central banks enjoy lower output losses during disinflationary cycles. Since independence is presume to provide a credibility bonus to the monetary policy, this conclusion looks surprising. To explain their paradoxical result, these authors put forward that independent central banks probably face a flatter short-run Phillips curve. In this paper, we provide a formal demonstration of this point. More precisely, we demonstrate that the private sector has less incentive to index its nominal wages when the central bank is granted with a large amount of independence. Since an increased indexation steepens the short-run Phillips curve, our result is consistent with the view that where central bank independence is greater, the cost of disinflation is higher. Our empirical tests, for a sample of 19 OECD countries, support our theoretical analysis. In particular, a negative and significant relationship is found between indexation and independence.
|Date of creation:||2000|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: PEGE. 61, Aven. de la Forêt-Noire 67000 Strasbourg|
Phone: +33 3 68 85 20 69
Fax: +33 3 68 85 20 70
Web page: http://www.beta-umr7522.fr/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-1189.
- Alesina, Alberto & Summers, Lawrence H, 1993. "Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(2), pages 151-62, May.
- Laurence Ball, 1993.
"What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?,"
NBER Working Papers
4306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Posen, Adam, 1998.
"Central Bank Independence and Disinflationary Credibility: A Missing Link?,"
Oxford Economic Papers,
Oxford University Press, vol. 50(3), pages 335-59, July.
- Adam S. Posen, 1995. "Central bank independence and disinflationary credibility: a missing link?," Staff Reports 1, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986.
"Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem,"
NBER Working Papers
1950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Devereux, Michael, 1987. "The effect of monetary variability on welfare in a simple macroeconomic model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 427-435, May.
- Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983.
"Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
- Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1983. "Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 1079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fischer, Stanley, 1983. "Indexing and inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 519-541, November.
- Alberto Alesina, 1988. "Macroeconomics and Politics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, pages 13-62 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fischer, Stanley & Summers, Lawrence H, 1989. "Should Governments Learn to Live with Inflation?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 382-87, May.
- Andreas Fischer, 1996. "Central bank independence and sacrifice ratios," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 5-18, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2000-03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.