IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/uct/uconnp/2017-07.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Comment: Betting on Secession: Quantifying Political Events Surrounding Slavery and the Civil War

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Hallwood

    (University of Connecticut)

Abstract

Abstract: This paper argues that falling slave prices in the earliest months of the American Civil War in April 1861 indicates lack of confidence in the durability of the Confederacy. The key to this understanding is use of an asset pricing model that distinguishes between the expected outcomes of the war, whether the war was thought to be over quickly or otherwise, and whether any compensation for emancipation would be paid. This view concurs with other investigators who have examined falling gold bond and cotton bond prices and, in the very early months, rising Confederate dollar prices of gold, as well as difficulties in selling Confederate bonds to finance its war effort.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Hallwood, 2017. "Comment: Betting on Secession: Quantifying Political Events Surrounding Slavery and the Civil War," Working papers 2017-07, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:uct:uconnp:2017-07
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://web2.uconn.edu/economics/working/2017-07.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Merrick Jr., John J., 2001. "Crisis dynamics of implied default recovery ratios: Evidence from Russia and Argentina," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1921-1939, October.
    2. Marc D. Weidenmier & Kim Oosterlinck, 2007. "Victory or Repudiation? The Probability of the Southern Confederacy Winning the Civil War," NBER Working Papers 13567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Weidenmier, Marc D., 2000. "The Market for Confederate Cotton Bonds," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 76-97, January.
    4. Charles W. Calomiris & Jonathan Pritchett, 2016. "Betting on Secession: Quantifying Political Events Surrounding Slavery and the Civil War," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(1), pages 1-23, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Confederacy; default risk; secession; slavery; US Civil War;

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism
    • N31 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N41 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uct:uconnp:2017-07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark McConnel). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/deuctus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.