Comment: Betting on Secession: Quantifying Political Events Surrounding Slavery and the Civil War
Abstract: This paper argues that falling slave prices in the earliest months of the American Civil War in April 1861 indicates lack of confidence in the durability of the Confederacy. The key to this understanding is use of an asset pricing model that distinguishes between the expected outcomes of the war, whether the war was thought to be over quickly or otherwise, and whether any compensation for emancipation would be paid. This view concurs with other investigators who have examined falling gold bond and cotton bond prices and, in the very early months, rising Confederate dollar prices of gold, as well as difficulties in selling Confederate bonds to finance its war effort.
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- Merrick Jr., John J., 2001. "Crisis dynamics of implied default recovery ratios: Evidence from Russia and Argentina," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1921-1939, October.
- Weidenmier, Marc D., 2000. "The Market for Confederate Cotton Bonds," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 76-97, January.
- Charles W. Calomiris & Jonathan Pritchett, 2016.
"Betting on Secession: Quantifying Political Events Surrounding Slavery and the Civil War,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 106(1), pages 1-23, January.
- Charles W. Calomiris & Jonathan Pritchett, 2013. "Betting on Secession: Quantifying Political Events Surrounding Slavery and the Civil War," NBER Working Papers 19625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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