The Value of Waiting: Foreign Direct Investment with Uncertainty and Imperfect Local Knowledge
This paper examines the role of uncertainty and imperfect local knowledge in foreign direct investment. The main idea comes from the literature on investment under uncertainty, such as Pindyck (1991) and Dixit and Pindyck (1994). We empirically test .the value of waiting. with a dataset on foreign direct investment (FDI). Many factors (e.g., political and economic regulations) as well as uncertainty and the risks due to imperfect local knowledge, determine the attractiveness of FDI. The uncertainty and irreversibility of FDI links the time interval between permission and actual execution of such FDI with explanatory variables, including information on foreign (home) countries and domestic industries. Common factors, such as regulatory change and external shocks, may affect the uncertainty when foreign investors make irreversible FDI decisions. We derive testable hypotheses from models of investment under uncertainty to determine those possible factors that induce delays in FDI, using Korean data over 1962 to 2001.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2004|
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- José Manuel Campa, 1994. "Multinational Investment under Uncertainty in the Chemical Processing Industries," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 25(3), pages 557-578, September.
- Gregory K. Bell & José M. Campa, 1997. "Irreversible Investments And Volatile Markets: A Study Of The Chemical Processing Industry," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(1), pages 79-87, February.
- Pindyck, Robert S., 1990.
"Irreversibility, uncertainty, and investment,"
3137-90., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Pietra Rivoli & Eugene Salorio, 1996. "Foreign Direct Investment and Investment under Uncertainty," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 27(2), pages 335-357, June.
- Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
- Buckley, Adrian & Tse, Kalun, 1996. "Real operating options and foreign direct investment: A synthetic approach," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 304-314, June.
- Avinash Dixit, 1992. "Investment and Hysteresis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 107-132, Winter.
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