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The Behaviour of Inflation and Unemployment in the United States

  • Vincent Hogan

    (University College Dublin)

Low rates of inflation have been recorded in the United States in recent years despite a decline in the unemployment rate. This phenomenon could be the result of a series of transitory shocks or of a permanent change in the structure of the economy leading to a lower NAIRU. The paper suggests that while the NAIRU may have fallen slightly, it has not fallen by an amount sufficient to explain the recent behaviour of inflation. The main explanation for recent inflation performance appears to be that there have been favorable price shocks; in particular, the cost of imports has fallen sharply as the dollar has appreciated.

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File URL: http://www.ucd.ie/economics/research/papers/2000/WP00.16.pdf
File Function: First version, 2000
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by School of Economics, University College Dublin in its series Working Papers with number 200016.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: 12 Jun 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ucn:wpaper:200016
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Web page: http://www.ucd.ie/economics

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  1. Cara S. Lown & Robert W. Rich, 1997. "Is there an inflation puzzle?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 51-77.
  2. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
  3. Adams, Charles & Coe, David T., 1989. "A Systems Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential Output for the United States," MPRA Paper 8622, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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