Improving Classifier Performance Assessment of Credit Scoring Models
In evaluating credit scoring predictive power it is common to use the Re-ceiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve, the Area Under the Curve(AUC) and the minimum probability-weighted loss. The main weakness of the rst two assessments is not to take the costs of misclassi cation errors into account and the last one depends on the number of defaults in the credit portfolio. The main purposes of this paper are to provide a curve, called curve of Misclassi cation Error Loss (MEL), and a classi er performance measure that overcome the above-mentioned drawbacks. We prove that the ROC dominance is equivalent to the MEL dominance. Furthermore, we derive the probability distribution of the proposed predictive power measure and we analyse its performance by Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, we apply the suggested methodologies to empirical data on Italian Small and Medium Enterprisers.
|Date of creation:||20 Feb 2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Arts Annexe, Belfield, Dublin 4|
Phone: +353 1 7164615
Fax: +353 1 7161108
Web page: http://www.ucd.ie/geary/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hand D.J. & Vinciotti V., 2003. "Local Versus Global Models for Classification Problems: Fitting Models Where it Matters," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 57, pages 124-131, May.
- Dirk Tasche, 2006. "Validation of internal rating systems and PD estimates," Papers physics/0606071, arXiv.org.
- Raffaella Calabrese & Silvia Angela Osmetti, 2011. "Generalized Extreme Value Regression for Binary Rare Events Data: an Application to Credit Defaults," Working Papers 201120, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
- Stein, Roger M., 2005. "The relationship between default prediction and lending profits: Integrating ROC analysis and loan pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1213-1236, May.
- Altman, Edward I. & Haldeman, Robert G. & Narayanan, P., 1977. "ZETATM analysis A new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 29-54, June.
- Dirk Tasche, 2002. "Remarks on the monotonicity of default probabilities," Papers cond-mat/0207555, arXiv.org.
- Crook, Jonathan N. & Edelman, David B. & Thomas, Lyn C., 2007. "Recent developments in consumer credit risk assessment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 183(3), pages 1447-1465, December.
- Fantazzini, Dean, 2008. "Credit Risk Management," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 12(4), pages 84-137.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucd:wpaper:201204. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Geary Tech)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.