IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ube/dpvwib/dp2505.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Last Shall Be First: Innovation as a Head-to-Head Race

Author

Listed:
  • Patrick Arnold, Marc Möller, Catherine Roux

Abstract

Uncertainty about the value of a contested innovation induces leaders and laggards to update their expectations in opposite directions. We characterize situations in which firms that have obtained an initial advantage are not the most likely to achieve final success. In spite of amplifying a leader’s advantage, greater contest intensity facilitates this effect, challenging the view that laggards require support to remain competitive.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Arnold, Marc Möller, Catherine Roux, 2025. "The Last Shall Be First: Innovation as a Head-to-Head Race," Diskussionsschriften dp2505, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    • Handle: RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp2505
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.vwiit.ch/dp/dp2025.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Doraszelski, Ulrich, 2003. "An R&D Race with Knowledge Accumulation," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 34(1), pages 20-42, Spring.
    2. Marc Möller & Juan Beccuti, 2025. "Fighting for Lemons: The Balancing Effect of Private Information on Incentives in Dynamic Contests," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 135(669), pages 1641-1676.
    3. Subhasish M. Chowdhury & Patricia Esteve‐González & Anwesha Mukherjee, 2023. "Heterogeneity, leveling the playing field, and affirmative action in contests," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 89(3), pages 924-974, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fershtman, Chaim & Markovich, Sarit, 2010. "Patents, imitation and licensing in an asymmetric dynamic R&D race," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 113-126, March.
    2. Joao Macieira, 2010. "Oblivious Equilibrium in Dynamic Discrete Games," 2010 Meeting Papers 680, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Li, Bo & Wu, Zenan & Xing, Zeyu, 2023. "Optimally biased contests with draws," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    4. Gilbert, Richard J. & Katz, Michael L., 2011. "Efficient division of profits from complementary innovations," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 443-454, July.
    5. Chowdhury, Subhasish M. & Jewell, Sarah & Singleton, Carl, 2024. "Can awareness reduce (and reverse) identity-driven bias in judgement? Evidence from international cricket," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    6. Jaakkola, Niko & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2019. "Non-cooperative and cooperative climate policies with anticipated breakthrough technology," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 42-66.
    7. Chowdhury, Subhasish M. & Marini, Matteo M., 2024. "Overbidding and heterogeneous behavior in contest experiments:A meta-comment on cross-cultural differences," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    8. Dawid, Herbert & Riedel, Frank & Steg, Jan-Henrik & Wen, Xingang, 2024. "Cash-constrained R&D Investment," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 699, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    9. Jaap W.B. Bos & Ryan C.R. van Lamoen & Mark W.J.L. Sanders, 2011. "Producing Innovations: Determinants of Innovativity and Efficiency," DEGIT Conference Papers c016_060, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    10. Alessandro Bonatti & Johannes Horner, 2011. "Career Concerns with Coarse Information," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1831, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jan 2012.
    11. J. Atsu Amegashie, 2021. "Advantageous Smallness in Contests," CESifo Working Paper Series 9419, CESifo.
    12. Markovich, Sarit & Moenius, Johannes, 2009. "Winning while losing: Competition dynamics in the presence of indirect network effects," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 346-357, May.
    13. Herbert Dawid & Michael Kopel & Peter M. Kort, 2020. "Product innovation with partial capacity rollover," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 28(2), pages 479-496, June.
    14. Subhasish M. Chowdhury & Patricia Esteve‐González & Anwesha Mukherjee, 2023. "Heterogeneity, leveling the playing field, and affirmative action in contests," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 89(3), pages 924-974, January.
    15. Goel, Sumit, 2025. "Optimal grading contests," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 133-149.
    16. Lauber, Arne & March, Christoph & Sahm, Marco, 2023. "Optimal and fair prizing in sequential round-robin tournaments: Experimental evidence," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 30-51.
    17. Luca Lambertini & Andrea Mantovani, 2010. "Process and product innovation: A differential game approach to product life cycle," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 6(2), pages 227-252, June.
    18. Subedi, Mukti Nath & Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa & Ulker, Aydogan, 2022. "Effects of Affirmative Action on Educational and Labour Market Outcomes: Evidence from Nepal's Reservation Policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 443-463.
    19. Herbert Dawid & Benteng Zou, 2014. "Strategies of Foreign Direct Investment in the Presence of Technological Spillovers," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Josef Haunschmied & Vladimir M. Veliov & Stefan Wrzaczek (ed.), Dynamic Games in Economics, edition 127, pages 115-133, Springer.
    20. Victor Aguirregabiria & Allan Collard-Wexler & Stephen P. Ryan, 2021. "Dynamic Games in Empirical Industrial Organization," NBER Working Papers 29291, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp2505. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Franz Koelliker (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vwibech.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.