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Coordination Failure and Financial Contagion

  • Michael Manz
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    This paper explores a unique equilibrium model of ''informational'' financial contagion. Extending the global game model of Morris and Shin (1999), I show that the failure of a single firm can trigger a chain of failures merely by affecting the behavior of investors. In contrast to the existing multiple equilibria models of financial and banking panics, there is no indeterminacy in the present model. Thus, it provides a clear framework to assess the consequences of contagion and yields some important and hitherto unnoticed insights. Most importantly, if contagion is compared to an appropriate benchmark, its impact can be both positive or negative, which contrasts sharply with the traditional view of contagion. Moreover, contagion increases the correlation between firms, but the effect on the unconditional probability of failure is exactly zero

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    File URL: http://www.vwl.unibe.ch/papers/dp/dp0203.pdf
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    Paper provided by Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft in its series Diskussionsschriften with number dp0203.

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    Date of creation: Mar 2002
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    Handle: RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp0203
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    1. Carlsson, H. & van Damme, E.E.C., 1993. "Global games and equilibrium selection," Other publications TiSEM 49a54f00-dcec-4fc1-9488-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June.
    3. Morris, S & Song Shin, H, 1996. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," Economics Papers 126, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    4. Stephen Morris & Hyun S Shin, 2001. "Global Games: Theory and Applications," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000001080, David K. Levine.
    5. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Sangkyun Park, 1991. "Bank failure contagion in historical perspective," Research Paper 9103, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 1999. "Coordination Risk and the Price of Debt," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1241, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    8. Aharony, Joseph & Swary, Itzhak, 1996. "Additional evidence on the information-based contagion effects of bank failures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 57-69, January.
    9. Rubinstein, Ariel, 1989. "The Electronic Mail Game: Strategic Behavior under "Almost Common Knowledge."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 385-91, June.
    10. Rochet, Jean-Charles & Vives, Xavier, 2004. "Coordination Failures and the Lender of Last Resort : Was Bagehot Right After All?," IDEI Working Papers 294, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    11. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1999. "Financial Contagion," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2092, David K. Levine.
    12. Maurice Obstfeld, 1995. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-Fulfilling Features," NBER Working Papers 5285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Park, Yung Chul & Claessens, Stijn, 2000. "Contagion: Understanding How It Spreads," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 15(2), pages 177-97, August.
    14. Frankel, David M. & Morris, Stephen & Pauzner, Ady, 2003. "Equilibrium selection in global games with strategic complementarities," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-44, January.
    15. Yehning Chen, 1999. "Banking Panics: The Role of the First-Come, First-Served Rule and Information Externalities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(5), pages 946-968, October.
    16. Jean-Charles Rochet & Jean Tirole, 1996. "Interbank lending and systemic risk," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), pages 733-765.
    17. Park, Sangkyun, 1991. "Bank failure contagion in historical perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 271-286, October.
    18. Postlewaite, Andrew & Vives, Xavier, 1987. "Bank Runs as an Equilibrium Phenomenon," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(3), pages 485-91, June.
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