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More Haste, Less Speed? Signaling through Investment Timing

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  • Bobtcheff, Catherine
  • Levy, Raphaël

Abstract

We consider a real option model in which a cash-constrained entrepreneur learns prior to investing, but at a speed which is private information. The entrepreneur seeks outside funding, and uses the timing of his investment to signal his confidence in the venture, and accordingly obtain cheaper credit. In the benchmark case with no informational friction, we show that the optimal investment date may be nonmonotonic or decreasing in the learning speed, depending on the prior NPV of the project: better learning increases the value of the option to wait, but also increases the speed of updating. In the presence of asymmetric information, the cash constraint may result in distortions in investment timing, and the inefficiency is higher the more stringent the cash shortage. Inefficient investment policy may take both the form of hurried investment (as compared to the benchmark), when both entrepreneur types learn suficiently fast, and of delayed investment, when the slow-learning type does not learn fast enough. Therefore, the severity of the cash constraint affects the magnitude of the timing distortion, but not its direction.

Suggested Citation

  • Bobtcheff, Catherine & Levy, Raphaël, 2015. "More Haste, Less Speed? Signaling through Investment Timing," TSE Working Papers 15-571, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:29283
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Marina Halac & Ilan Kremer, 2020. "Experimenting with Career Concerns," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 260-288, February.
    2. Chia-Hui Chen & Junichiro Ishida & Wing Suen, 2021. "Reputation Concerns in Risky Experimentation [Reputation and Survival: Learning in a Dynamic Signalling Model]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 1981-2021.
    3. Thomas, Caroline, 2019. "Experimentation with reputation concerns – Dynamic signalling with changing types," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 366-415.
    4. Chen, Chia-Hui & Ishida, Junichiro & Suen, Wing, 2024. "Signaling under double-crossing preferences: The case of discrete types," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    5. Ayse Gül Mermer & Sander Onderstal & Joep Sonnemans, "undated". "Can Communication Mitigate Strategic Delays in Investment Timing?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-033/I, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. Wagner, Peter A. & Klein, Nicolas, 2022. "Strategic investment and learning with private information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    7. Vincenzo Formisano & Maria Fedele & Emanuela Antonucci, 2016. "Innovation in Financial Services: A Challenge for Start-Ups Growth," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(3), pages 149-149, February.
    8. Bobtcheff, Catherine & Mariotti, Thomas & Levy, Raphaël, 2021. "Negative results in science: Blessing or (winner’s) curse," TSE Working Papers 21-1202, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    9. Chia-Hui Chen & Junichiro Ishida & Wing Suen, 2019. "Reputation Concerns in Risky Experimentation," ISER Discussion Paper 1060, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    10. Chia-Hui Chen & Junichiro Ishida & Wing Suen, 2020. "Signaling under Double-Crossing Preferences," ISER Discussion Paper 1103, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    11. Chia‐Hui Chen & Junichiro Ishida & Wing Suen, 2022. "Signaling Under Double‐Crossing Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(3), pages 1225-1260, May.
    12. Chia-Hui Chen & Junichiro Ishida & Wing Suen, 2020. "Signaling under Double-Crossing Preferences," ISER Discussion Paper 1103r, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, revised Dec 2020.
    13. Alessandro Spiganti, 2020. "Can Starving Start‐ups Beat Fat Labs? A Bandit Model of Innovation with Endogenous Financing Constraint," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(2), pages 702-731, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Signaling; investment timing; financing of innovation; real options;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D25 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice: Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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