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International Sanctions and Coups d’État

Author

Listed:
  • Pascal Langer

Abstract

This paper analyzes how international sanctions influence the likelihood of coups d’état in targeted countries. Using panel logit models, an event-study design, and propensity-score weighting on data for 158 countries from 1971 to 2019, I find that Western sanctions significantly increase coup risk, with an initial effect of about 7.8 pp in the first year after imposition. On average, Western sanctions raise the probability of coups by 1.7–1.9 pp, and successful coups by 2.1–2.3 pp, with particularly strong effects in the post-Cold War era. The impact is largely driven by authoritarian regimes, especially personalist and military systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Pascal Langer, 2024. "International Sanctions and Coups d’État," Research Papers in Economics 2024-14, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:trr:wpaper:202414
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    File URL: https://www.uni-trier.de/fileadmin/fb4/prof/VWL/EWF/Research_Papers/2024-14.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:cup:apsrev:v:113:y:2019:i:03:p:868-881_00 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

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