Institutions and Economic Outcomes: A Dominance Based Analysis of Causality and Multivariate Welfare With Discrete and Continuous Variables
One of the central issues in welfare economics is the measurement of overall wellbeing and, to this end, the interaction between institutions (polity) and growth is paramount. Individual welfare depends on both economic and political factors but the continuous nature of economic variables combined with the discrete nature of political ones renders conventional multivariate techniques problematic. In this paper, we propose a multivariate dominance test based on the comparison of mixtures of continuous and discrete distributions to examine changes in welfare. Our results suggest that, while economic growth exerted a positive impact from 1960 to 2000, declines in polity over the earlier part of this period were sufficient to produce a decline in overall wellbeing until the mid-1970s. Subsequent increases in polity then reversed the trend and, ultimately, wellbeing in 2000 was higher than that in 1960. To be sure, economic and political variables are correlated and, based on the dominance of polity in our multivariate results, we conjecture that this correlation is predominantly due to a causal link from polity to growth. While the development literature is rife with debates over whether it is institutions that cause growth or growth that causes institutions, we argue that the relevant question is not which hypothesis is correct but, rather, which hypothesis dominates. Since standard regression techniques have difficulty capturing non-linear dependence, especially when one of the variables is an index with limited variation, we propose a causality dominance test to examine this aspect of the growth-institutions nexus and indeed find evidence that the causal effects of polity on growth dominate those of growth on polity, particularly when the data are population weighted.
|Date of creation:||23 Oct 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (416) 978-5283
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993.
"Finance and growth : Schumpeter might be right,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
1083, The World Bank.
- Jakob de Haan & Susanna Lundstroem & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2005.
"Market oriented institutions and policies and economic growth: A critical survey,"
TWI Research Paper Series
5, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
- Jakob De Haan & Susanna Lundström & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2006. "Market-oriented institutions and policies and economic growth: A critical survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 157-191, 04.
- Duclos, Jean-Yves & Sahn, David & Younger, Stephen D., 2001.
"Robust Multidimensional Poverty Comparisons,"
Cahiers de recherche
0115, Université Laval - Département d'économique.
- Gordon Anderson & Oliver Linton & Yoon-Jae Whang, 2009.
"Nonparametric estimation of a polarization measure,"
CeMMAP working papers
CWP14/09, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Gordon Anderson & Oliver Linton & Yoon-Jae Whang, 2009. "Nonparametric Estimation of a Polarization Measure," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1714, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Gordon Anderson & Oliver Linton & Yoon-Jae Wang, 2009. "Non Parametric Estimation of a Polarization Measure," Working Papers tecipa-363, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
- Gordon Anderson & Oliver Linton & Yoon-Jae Whang, 2009. "Nonparametric estimation of a polarization measure," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 25378, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Gordon Anderson & Oliver Linton & Yoon-Jae Whang, 2009. "Nonparametric Estimation of a Polarization Measure," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2009/534, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
- Gordon Anderson & Oliver Linton & Yoon-Jae Whang, 2009. "Nonparametric estimation of a polarization measure," Economics Working Papers we095130, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
- Edward L. Glaeser & Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer, 2004.
"Do Institutions Cause Growth?,"
Journal of Economic Growth,
Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 271-303, 09.
- John W. Dawson, 2001.
"Causality in the Freedom-Growth Relationship,"
01-04, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
- James D . Gwartney & Randall G . Holcombe & Robert A . Lawson, 2006. "Institutions and the Impact of Investment on Growth," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 255-273, 05.
- A. Chong & C. Calderón, 2000. "Causality and Feedback Between Institutional Measures and Economic Growth," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 69-81, 03.
- Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman & Beck, Thorsten, 1999.
"Financial intermediation and growth : Causality and causes,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
2059, The World Bank.
- Ross Levine & Norman Loayza & Thorsten Beck, 2002. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 031-084 Central Bank of Chile.
- Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman & Beck, Thorsten, 2000. "Financial intermediation and growth: Causality and causes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 31-77, August.
- Thorsten Beck & Ross Levine & Norman Loayza, 1999. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 56, Central Bank of Chile.
- Atkinson, Anthony B & Bourguignon, Francois, 1982. "The Comparison of Multi-Dimensioned Distributions of Economic Status," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(2), pages 183-201, April.
- Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999.
"Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker Than Others?,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116, February.
- Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output per Worker than Others?," NBER Working Papers 6564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2000.
"The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation,"
NBER Working Papers
7771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December.
- Manuel Vega-Gordillo & JosÃ© L. Ãlvarez-Arce, 2003. "Economic Growth and Freedom: A Causality Study," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 23(2), pages 199-215, Fall.
- Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, .
"Financial Dependence and Growth,"
CRSP working papers
344, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Jac C. Heckelman, 2000. "Economic Freedom and Economic Growth: A Short-run Causal Investigation," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 71-91, May.
- repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3125519 is not listed on IDEAS
- César Calderón & Lin Liu, 2002.
"The Direction of Causality Between Financial Development and Economic Growth,"
Working Papers Central Bank of Chile
184, Central Bank of Chile.
- Calderon, Cesar & Liu, Lin, 2003. "The direction of causality between financial development and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 321-334, October.
- Sudhir Anand & Martin Ravallion, 1993. "Human Development in Poor Countries: On the Role of Private Incomes and Public Services," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 133-150, Winter.
- Chris Doucouliagos, 2005. "Publication Bias in the Economic Freedom and Economic Growth Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 367-387, 07.
- repec:fth:wobaco:1083 is not listed on IDEAS
- Klomp, Jeroen & de Haan, Jakob, 2009. "Political institutions and economic volatility," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 311-326, September.
- Wolak, Frank A., 1989. "Testing inequality constraints in linear econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 205-235, June.
- Shan, Jordan Z & Morris, Alan G & Sun, Fiona, 2001. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: An Egg-and-Chicken Problem?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 443-54, August.
- Daniel Kaufmann & Aart Kraay, 2002.
"Growth without Governance,"
JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA,
LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-378. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (RePEc Maintainer)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.