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Corrected Empirical Bayes Confidence Intervals in Nested Error Regression Models

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  • Tatsuya Kubokawa

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)

Abstract

In the small area estimation, the empirical best linear unbiased predictor (EBLUP) or the empirical Bayes estimator (EB) in the linear mixed model is recognized useful because it gives a stable and reliable estimate for a mean of a small area. In practical situations where EBLUP is applied to real data, it is important to evaluate how much EBLUP is reliable. One method for the purpose is to construct a confidence interval based on EBLUP. In this paper, we obtain an asymptotically corrected empirical Bayes confidence interval in a nested error regression model with unbalanced sample sizes and unknown components of variance. The coverage probability is shown to satisfy the confidence level in the second order asymptotics. It is numerically revealed that the corrected confidence interval is superior to the conventional confidence interval based on the sample mean in terms of the coverage probability and the expected width of the interval. Finally, it is applied to the posted land price data in Tokyo and the neighboring prefecture.

Suggested Citation

  • Tatsuya Kubokawa, 2009. "Corrected Empirical Bayes Confidence Intervals in Nested Error Regression Models," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-632, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  • Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2009cf632
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    File URL: http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2009/2009cf632.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gauri Sankar Datta & J. N. K. Rao & David Daniel Smith, 2005. "On measuring the variability of small area estimators under a basic area level model," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 92(1), pages 183-196, March.
    2. Gauri Sankar Datta, 2002. "On an Asymptotic Theory of Conditional and Unconditional Coverage Probabilities of Empirical Bayes Confidence Intervals," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 139-152.
    3. Peter Hall & Tapabrata Maiti, 2006. "On parametric bootstrap methods for small area prediction," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 68(2), pages 221-238.
    4. Basu, Ruma & Ghosh, J. K. & Mukerjee, Rahul, 2003. "Empirical Bayes prediction intervals in a normal regression model: higher order asymptotics," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 197-203, June.
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