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Response speeds of direct and securitized real estate to shocks in the fundamentals

Author

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  • Elias Oikarinen

    ()

  • Martin Hoesli

    ()

  • Camilo Serrano

    ()

Abstract

This paper contributes to the literature by identifying the response patterns of direct and indirect real estate returns to shocks in the market fundamentals. The response speeds are estimated with vector autoregressive models using TBI and NAREIT returns for the period 1994-2009 in the United States. To avoid the potential influence of different property mixes and of leverage on the dynamics, we use sector level data and deleveraged NAREIT returns. The findings indicate that REIT returns lead direct real estate returns even when catering for the property type and for leverage. Our estimations suggest that this lead-lag relationship is due to the sluggish reaction of direct real estate prices to unexpected changes both in the fundamentals and in REIT prices. The findings further suggest that the perceived lead-lag relations are not only due to the slow adjustment of sellers' reservation prices, but also due to the sluggish reaction of demand in the direct real estate market.

Suggested Citation

  • Elias Oikarinen & Martin Hoesli & Camilo Serrano, 2010. "Response speeds of direct and securitized real estate to shocks in the fundamentals," Discussion Papers 60, Aboa Centre for Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:tkk:dpaper:dp60
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    File URL: http://www.ace-economics.fi/kuvat/dp60.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Hoesli, Martin & Oikarinen, Elias, 2012. "Are REITs real estate? Evidence from international sector level data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1823-1850.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Vector Autoregressive Models; Generalized Impulse Response Functions; Direct Real Estate; Securitized Real Estate; Dynamics;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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