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Circular Triads of overperformance in top European football leagues

Author

Listed:
  • Jan van Ours

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

Abstract

This study examines eight seasons of professional football matches in the English Premier League, German Bundesliga, Italian Serie A, and Spanish La Liga. The focus is on the existence of non-transitive triads in match outcomes in terms of points, the quality of performance as indicated by expected points, and the difference between the two, which reflects overperformance or underperformance. The main finding is that there are quite a few non-transitive triads in match outcomes. Surprisingly, these are related to non-transitive patterns in overperformance, but not to non-transitive patterns in quality of performance. Persistent overperformance over a long period of time is generally unlikely to occur; however, it does appear in these non-transitive triads. Circular triads of overperformance may be related to psychological effects, such as placebo or nocebo effects, whereby recent histories of encouraging or disappointing match outcomes have long-lasting consequences.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan van Ours, 2026. "Circular Triads of overperformance in top European football leagues," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 26-009/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jung S You, 2021. "Random Actions in Experimental Zero-Sum Games," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 13(1), pages 69-81.
    2. Jan van Ours, 2025. "On Bogey Teams and Circular Triads: Psychological Factors in Team Performance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 25-018/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Ignacio Palacios-Huerta, 2025. "The Beautiful Dataset," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1363-1423, December.
    4. Jan van Ours, 2025. "Non-Transitive Patterns in Sports Match Outcomes: A Profitable Anomaly," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 25-015/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    5. van Ours, Jan C., 2025. "On bogey teams and circular triads: Psychological factors in team performance," Sports Economics Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(C).
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    7. van Ours, Jan C., 2024. "Non-Transitive Patterns in Long-Term Football Rivalries," CEPR Discussion Papers 19055, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    8. Jan C. van Ours, 2025. "Non-transitive patterns in sports match outcomes: a profitable anomaly," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(6), pages 4057-4087, December.
    9. van Ours, Jan C., 2025. "Non-Transitive Patterns in Sports Match Outcomes: A Profitable Anomaly," CEPR Discussion Papers 19973, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    10. Bozóki, Sándor & Csató, László & Temesi, József, 2016. "An application of incomplete pairwise comparison matrices for ranking top tennis players," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 248(1), pages 211-218.
    11. Romain Gauriot & Lionel Page, 2019. "Fooled by Performance Randomness: Overrewarding Luck," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 658-666, October.
    12. van Ours, Jan C., 2026. "Outcome bias in managerial decisions," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    13. Timothy N. Cason & Daniel Friedman & ED Hopkins, 2014. "Cycles and Instability in a Rock--Paper--Scissors Population Game: A Continuous Time Experiment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(1), pages 112-136.
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    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • Z20 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - General

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