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Circular Triads of overperformance in top European football leagues

Author

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  • Jan van Ours

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

Abstract

This study examines eight seasons of professional football matches in the English Premier League, German Bundesliga, Italian Serie A, and Spanish La Liga. The focus is on the existence of non-transitive triads in match outcomes in terms of points, the quality of performance as indicated by expected points, and the difference between the two, which reflects overperformance or underperformance. The main finding is that there are quite a few non-transitive triads in match outcomes. Surprisingly, these are related to non-transitive patterns in overperformance, but not to non-transitive patterns in quality of performance. Persistent overperformance over a long period of time is generally unlikely to occur; however, it does appear in these non-transitive triads. Circular triads of overperformance may be related to psychological effects, such as placebo or nocebo effects, whereby recent histories of encouraging or disappointing match outcomes have long-lasting consequences.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan van Ours, 2026. "Circular Triads of overperformance in top European football leagues," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 26-009/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260009
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • Z20 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - General

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