IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tin/wpaper/20250055.html

Good Vibrations: Outcome Bias in Consumer Demand

Author

Listed:
  • Jan C. van Ours

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

Abstract

Expectations about future events can be influenced by prior outcomes of similar events, even when those outcomes were partly determined by chance. When such randomness is overlooked in decision-making, outcome bias may arise. This paper investigates the presence of outcome bias in consumer demand for professional football, focusing specifically on stadium attendance in the top divisions of the "big five" European football leagues. The analysis reveals that stadium occupancy rates are influenced by the outcomes of previous matches, even when those outcomes do not accurately reflect the home team’s underlying performance quality. These findings suggest that consumer demand for stadium attendance exhibits outcome bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan C. van Ours, 2025. "Good Vibrations: Outcome Bias in Consumer Demand," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 25-055/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20250055
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://papers.tinbergen.nl/25055.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romain Gauriot & Lionel Page, 2019. "Fooled by Performance Randomness: Overrewarding Luck," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 658-666, October.
    2. Hegarty, Tadgh & Whelan, Karl, 2024. "Comparing Two Methods for Testing the Efficiency of Sports Betting Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 19486, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    3. Jeffery Borland, 2003. "Demand for Sport," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 19(4), pages 478-502, Winter.
    4. Schreyer, Dominik & Schmidt, Sascha L. & Torgler, Benno, 2016. "Against all odds? Exploring the role of game outcome uncertainty in season ticket holders’ stadium attendance demand," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 192-217.
    5. Hegarty, Tadgh & Whelan, Karl, 2024. "Comparing two methods for testing the efficiency of sports betting markets," Sports Economics Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(C).
    6. Wheatcroft Edward, 2020. "Profiting from overreaction in soccer betting odds," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 16(3), pages 193-209, September.
    7. Pascal Flurin Meier & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2023. "Replication: Do Coaches Stick With What Barely Worked? Evidence of Outcome Bias in Professional Sports," Working Papers 400, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    8. James Mead & Anthony O’Hare & Paul McMenemy, 2023. "Expected goals in football: Improving model performance and demonstrating value," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(4), pages 1-29, April.
    9. Bucciol, Alessandro & Hu, Alessio & Zarri, Luca, 2019. "The effects of prior outcomes on managerial risk taking: Evidence from Italian professional soccer," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 75(PB).
    10. Dennis Coates & Brad R. Humphreys & Li Zhou, 2014. "Reference-Dependent Preferences, Loss Aversion, And Live Game Attendance," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(3), pages 959-973, July.
    11. Raymond D. Sauer, 1999. "Corrigendum: The Economics of Wagering Markets," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(2), pages 567-567, June.
    12. Kocher, Martin G. & Sutter, Matthias, 2010. "Introduction to special issue "The Economics and Psychology of Football"," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 155-157, April.
    13. Besters, Lucas M. & van Ours, Jan C. & van Tuijl, Martin A., 2019. "How outcome uncertainty, loss aversion and team quality affect stadium attendance in Dutch professional football," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 117-127.
    14. Oliver Merz & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2021. "Underestimating randomness: Outcome bias in betting exchange markets," Working Papers 390, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    15. Marc Brechot & Raphael Flepp, 2020. "Dealing With Randomness in Match Outcomes: How to Rethink Performance Evaluation in European Club Football Using Expected Goals," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 21(4), pages 335-362, May.
    16. Vasiliki Makropoulou & Raphael N. Markellos, 2011. "Optimal Price Setting In Fixed‐Odds Betting Markets Under Information Uncertainty," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 58(4), pages 519-536, September.
    17. Brad R. Humphreys & Li Zhou, 2015. "The Louis–Schmelling Paradox and the League Standing Effect Reconsidered," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 16(8), pages 835-852, December.
    18. Meier, Pascal Flurin & Flepp, Raphael & Franck, Egon, 2023. "Replication: Do coaches stick with what barely worked? Evidence of outcome bias in sports," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    19. Lars Lefgren & Brennan Platt & Joseph Price, 2015. "Sticking with What (Barely) Worked: A Test of Outcome Bias," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(5), pages 1121-1136, May.
    20. Brownback, Andy & Kuhn, Michael A., 2019. "Understanding outcome bias," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 342-360.
    21. Raphael Flepp & Oliver Merz & Egon Franck, 2024. "When the league table lies: Does outcome bias lead to informationally inefficient markets?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 414-429, January.
    22. Kausel, Edgar E. & Ventura, Santiago & Rodríguez, Arturo, 2019. "Outcome bias in subjective ratings of performance: Evidence from the (football) field," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 75(PB).
    23. Dominik Schreyer & Payam Ansari, 2022. "Stadium Attendance Demand Research: A Scoping Review," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 23(6), pages 749-788, August.
    24. George Wills & Francesco Addesa & Richard Tacon, 2023. "Stadium attendance demand in the men’s UEFA Champions League: Do fans value sporting contest or match quality?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(2), pages 1-22, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jan C. van Ours, 2025. "For What It's Worth: Outcome Bias in Managerial Decisions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 25-054/V, Tinbergen Institute.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. van Ours, Jan C., 2026. "Outcome bias in managerial decisions," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    2. Jedelhauser, Fabienne & Flepp, Raphael & Meier, Pascal Flurin & Franck, Egon, 2025. "Does performance pressure accentuate outcome bias? Evidence from managerial dismissals," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    3. Koji Yashiki, 2025. "Overrewarding Luck and Lucky Streak: Evidence from MLB," TUPD Discussion Papers 63, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    4. Jan C. van Ours, 2025. "For What It's Worth: Outcome Bias in Managerial Decisions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 25-054/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    5. Raphael Flepp & Oliver Merz & Egon Franck, 2024. "When the league table lies: Does outcome bias lead to informationally inefficient markets?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 414-429, January.
    6. Raphael Flepp & Pascal Flurin Meier, 2024. "Struck by Luck: Noisy Capability Cues and CEO Dismissal," Working Papers 389, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    7. Hojun Sung & Hyunwoong Pyun, 2023. "Disaggregated Attendance Demand: Comparing Daily Ticket Purchasers and Season Ticket Holders in K-League 1," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(6), pages 717-736, August.
    8. Li, Jianbiao & Liu, Zenghui & Niu, Xiaofei, 2025. "Transcranial stimulation over the right temporoparietal junction decreases outcome bias," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    9. Oliver Merz & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2021. "Underestimating randomness: Outcome bias in betting exchange markets," Working Papers 390, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    10. Dominik Schreyer & Payam Ansari, 2022. "Stadium Attendance Demand Research: A Scoping Review," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 23(6), pages 749-788, August.
    11. Besters, Lucas, 2018. "Economics of professional football," Other publications TiSEM d9e6b9b7-a17b-4665-9cca-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Lucas M. Besters & Jan (J.C.) van Ours & Martin A. van Tuijl, 2018. "How outcome uncertainty, loss aversion and team quality affect stadium attendance in Dutch professional football," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-082/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    13. Meier, Pascal Flurin & Flepp, Raphael & Meier, Philippe & Franck, Egon, 2022. "Outcome bias in self-evaluations: Quasi-experimental field evidence from Swiss driving license exams," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 292-309.
    14. Besters, Lucas M. & van Ours, Jan C. & van Tuijl, Martin A., 2019. "How outcome uncertainty, loss aversion and team quality affect stadium attendance in Dutch professional football," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 117-127.
    15. George Wills & Francesco Addesa & Richard Tacon, 2023. "Stadium attendance demand in the men’s UEFA Champions League: Do fans value sporting contest or match quality?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(2), pages 1-22, February.
    16. Jan van Ours, 2025. "Non-Transitive Patterns in Sports Match Outcomes: A Profitable Anomaly," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 25-015/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    17. Meier, Pascal Flurin & Flepp, Raphael & Franck, Egon, 2025. "Expectational reference points and belief formation: Field evidence from financial analysts," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    18. Di Mattia, Alessandro & Krumer, Alex, 2023. "Fewer teams, more games, larger attendance? Evidence from the structural change in basketball's EuroLeague," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 309(1), pages 359-370.
    19. Brian M. Mills & Rodney Fort, 2023. "Performance Quality Preference Heterogeneity in Major League Baseball," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(3), pages 352-373, April.
    20. Tim Pawlowski & Georgios Nalbantis & Dennis Coates, 2018. "Perceived Game Uncertainty, Suspense And The Demand For Sport," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 173-192, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • M12 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - Personnel Management; Executives; Executive Compensation
    • Z20 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20250055. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tinbergen Office +31 (0)10-4088900 (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tinbenl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.