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Good Vibrations: Outcome Bias in Consumer Demand

Author

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  • Jan C. van Ours

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

Abstract

Expectations about future events can be influenced by prior outcomes of similar events, even when those outcomes were partly determined by chance. When such randomness is overlooked in decision-making, outcome bias may arise. This paper investigates the presence of outcome bias in consumer demand for professional football, focusing specifically on stadium attendance in the top divisions of the "big five" European football leagues. The analysis reveals that stadium occupancy rates are influenced by the outcomes of previous matches, even when those outcomes do not accurately reflect the home team’s underlying performance quality. These findings suggest that consumer demand for stadium attendance exhibits outcome bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan C. van Ours, 2025. "Good Vibrations: Outcome Bias in Consumer Demand," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 25-055/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20250055
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • M12 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - Personnel Management; Executives; Executive Compensation
    • Z20 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - General

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