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Fooled by Performance Randomness: Overrewarding Luck

Author

Listed:
  • Romain Gauriot

    (New York University Abu Dhabi)

  • Lionel Page

    (University of Technology Sydney)

Abstract

We provide evidence of a violation of the informativeness principle whereby lucky successes are overly rewarded. We isolate a quasi-experimental situation where the success of an agent is as good as random. To do so, we use high-quality data on football (soccer) matches and select shots on goal that landed on the goal posts. Using nonscoring shots, taken from a similar location on the pitch, as counterfactuals to scoring shots, we estimate the causal effect of a lucky success (goal) on the evaluation of the player's performance. We find clear evidence that luck is overly influencing managers' decisions and evaluators' ratings. Our results suggest that this phenomenon is likely to be widespread in economic organizations.

Suggested Citation

  • Romain Gauriot & Lionel Page, 2019. "Fooled by Performance Randomness: Overrewarding Luck," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 658-666, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:101:y:2019:i:4:p:658-666
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Deschamps, Pierre & De Sousa, José, 2021. "Labor mobility and racial discrimination," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    2. Enzo Brox & Michael Lechner, 2024. "Teamwork and Spillover Effects in Performance Evaluations," Papers 2403.15200, arXiv.org.
    3. Anil Özdemir & Helmut Dietl & Giambattista Rossi & Rob Simmons, 2022. "Are workers rewarded for inconsistent performance?," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 137-151, April.
    4. Bar-Eli, Michael & Krumer, Alex & Morgulev, Elia, 2020. "Ask not what economics can do for sports - Ask what sports can do for economics," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    5. Marc Brechot & Raphael Flepp, 2020. "Dealing With Randomness in Match Outcomes: How to Rethink Performance Evaluation in European Club Football Using Expected Goals," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 21(4), pages 335-362, May.
    6. Raphael Flepp & Oliver Merz & Egon Franck, 2024. "When the league table lies: Does outcome bias lead to informationally inefficient markets?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 414-429, January.
    7. Romain Gauriot Author e-mail: romain.gauriot@nyu.edu & Lionel Page Author e-mail: lionel.page@uts.edu.au, 2021. "How Market Prices React to Information: Evidence from Binary Options Markets," Working Papers 20200058, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised Oct 2021.
    8. Fehr, Dietmar & Vollmann, Martin, 2020. "Misperceiving Economic Success: Experimental Evidence on Meritocratic Beliefs and Inequality Acceptance," Working Papers 0695, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    9. Nisvan Erkal & Lata Gangadharan & Boon Han Koh, 2022. "By chance or by choice? Biased attribution of others’ outcomes when social preferences matter," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 25(2), pages 413-443, April.
    10. Barry Reilly & Robert Witt, 2021. "The Effect of League Design on Spectator Attendance: A Regression Discontinuity Design Approach," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(5), pages 514-545, June.
    11. Sumit Sarkar & Sooraj Kamath, 2023. "Does luck play a role in the determination of the rank positions in football leagues? A study of Europe’s ‘big five’," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 245-260, June.
    12. Pascal Flurin Meier & Raphael Flepp & Philippe Meier & Egon Franck, 2022. "Outcome Bias in Self-evaluations: Quasi-experimental Field Evidence of Swiss Driving License Exams," Working Papers 392, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    13. Barry Reilly & Robert Witt, 2024. "The Effect of League Design on Club Revenues in the Scottish Premier League," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 1-28, January.
    14. Gabor Bekes & Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, 2022. "Cultural homophily and collaboration in superstar teams," CEP Discussion Papers dp1873, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    15. Oliver Merz & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2021. "Underestimating randomness: Outcome bias in betting exchange markets," Working Papers 390, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    16. Deschamps, Pierre & De Sousa, José, 2021. "Labor mobility and racial discrimination," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    17. Nisvan Erkal & Lata Gangadharan & Boon Han Koh, 2021. "Gender Biases in Performance Evaluation: The Role of Beliefs Versus Outcomes," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2021-09, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    18. Meier, Pascal Flurin & Flepp, Raphael & Franck, Egon, 2023. "Replication: Do coaches stick with what barely worked? Evidence of outcome bias in sports," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    19. Raphael Flepp & Pascal Flurin Meier, 2024. "Struck by Luck: Noisy Capability Cues and CEO Dismissal," Working Papers 389, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    20. Meier, Pascal Flurin & Flepp, Raphael & Meier, Philippe & Franck, Egon, 2022. "Outcome bias in self-evaluations: Quasi-experimental field evidence from Swiss driving license exams," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 292-309.
    21. Pascal Flurin Meier & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2023. "Replication: Do Coaches Stick With What Barely Worked? Evidence of Outcome Bias in Professional Sports," Working Papers 400, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    22. Brownback, Andy & Kuhn, Michael A., 2019. "Understanding outcome bias," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 342-360.
    23. Nisvan Erkal & Lata Gangadharan & Boon Han Koh, 2023. "Discrimination in Evaluation Criteria: The Role of Beliefs versus Outcomes," Discussion Papers 2316, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
    24. Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2021. "The Performance Effects Of Wise And Unwise Managerial Dismissals," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(1), pages 186-198, January.

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