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Fooled by Performance Randomness: Overrewarding Luck

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Cited by:

  1. Anil Özdemir & Helmut Dietl & Giambattista Rossi & Rob Simmons, 2022. "Are workers rewarded for inconsistent performance?," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 137-151, April.
  2. Bar-Eli, Michael & Krumer, Alex & Morgulev, Elia, 2020. "Ask not what economics can do for sports - Ask what sports can do for economics," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
  3. Raphael Flepp & Oliver Merz & Egon Franck, 2024. "When the league table lies: Does outcome bias lead to informationally inefficient markets?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 414-429, January.
  4. Romain Gauriot & Lionel Page, 2026. "How Market Prices React to Information: Evidence from Binary Options Markets," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 136(673), pages 163-183.
  5. Britta Glennon & Francisco Morales & Seth Carnahan & Exequiel Hernández, 2025. "Does Employing Skilled Immigrants Enhance Competitive Performance? Evidence from European Football Clubs," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 71(7), pages 5746-5766, July.
  6. Sumit Sarkar & Sooraj Kamath, 2023. "Does luck play a role in the determination of the rank positions in football leagues? A study of Europe’s ‘big five’," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 245-260, June.
  7. Oliver Merz & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2021. "Underestimating randomness: Outcome bias in betting exchange markets," Working Papers 390, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
  8. Deschamps, Pierre & De Sousa, José, 2021. "Labor mobility and racial discrimination," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
  9. Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2021. "The Performance Effects Of Wise And Unwise Managerial Dismissals," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(1), pages 186-198, January.
  10. Enzo Brox & Michael Lechner, 2024. "Teamwork and Spillover Effects in Performance Evaluations," Papers 2403.15200, arXiv.org.
  11. Clochard Gwen-Jirō & Carlos Gomez-Gonzalez & Marco Henriques Pereira, 2025. "Better the Devil You Know: Managers’ Networks, Hiring Decisions and Team Performance," ISER Discussion Paper 1275, Institute of Social and Economic Research, The University of Osaka.
  12. Nisvan Erkal & Lata Gangadharan & Boon Han Koh, 2022. "By chance or by choice? Biased attribution of others’ outcomes when social preferences matter," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 25(2), pages 413-443, April.
  13. Nisvan Erkal & Lata Gangadharan & Boon Han Koh, 2021. "Gender Biases in Performance Evaluation: The Role of Beliefs Versus Outcomes," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2021-09, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
  14. Pascal Flurin Meier & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2023. "Replication: Do Coaches Stick With What Barely Worked? Evidence of Outcome Bias in Professional Sports," Working Papers 400, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
  15. Braun Felia & Sonnabend Hendrik, 2024. "When Colleagues Come to See Each Other as Rivals: Does Internal Competition Affect Workplace Performance?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 244(5-6), pages 475-494.
  16. Brownback, Andy & Kuhn, Michael A., 2019. "Understanding outcome bias," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 342-360.
  17. Marc Brechot & Raphael Flepp, 2020. "Dealing With Randomness in Match Outcomes: How to Rethink Performance Evaluation in European Club Football Using Expected Goals," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 21(4), pages 335-362, May.
  18. Fehr, Dietmar & Vollmann, Martin, 2020. "Misperceiving Economic Success: Experimental Evidence on Meritocratic Beliefs and Inequality Acceptance," Working Papers 0695, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  19. Ignacio Lago & Carlos Lago‐Peñas & Santiago Lago‐Peñas, 2023. "Work group diversity in professional football: An individual‐level approach to the effects of diversity in organizations," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 104(4), pages 927-941, July.
  20. Raphael Flepp & Tim Pawlowski & Travis Richardson, 2025. "Suspense and Surprise in European Football," Papers 2506.21253, arXiv.org.
  21. Ian Gregory-Smith & Alex Bryson & Rafael Gomez, 2025. "Discrimination in retention decisions and its impact on career earnings. Evidence from the National Football League," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 2554, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
  22. Meier, Pascal Flurin & Flepp, Raphael & Franck, Egon, 2023. "Replication: Do coaches stick with what barely worked? Evidence of outcome bias in sports," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
  23. Raphael Flepp & Pascal Flurin Meier, 2024. "Struck by Luck: Noisy Capability Cues and CEO Dismissal," Working Papers 389, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
  24. Meier, Pascal Flurin & Flepp, Raphael & Meier, Philippe & Franck, Egon, 2022. "Outcome bias in self-evaluations: Quasi-experimental field evidence from Swiss driving license exams," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 292-309.
  25. Nisvan Erkal & Lata Gangadharan & Boon Han Koh, 2023. "Discrimination in Evaluation Criteria: The Role of Beliefs versus Outcomes," Discussion Papers 2316, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
  26. Jedelhauser, Fabienne & Flepp, Raphael & Meier, Pascal Flurin & Franck, Egon, 2025. "Does performance pressure accentuate outcome bias? Evidence from managerial dismissals," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
  27. Koji Yashiki, 2025. "Overrewarding Luck and Lucky Streak: Evidence from MLB," TUPD Discussion Papers 63, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
  28. Barry Reilly & Robert Witt, 2021. "The Effect of League Design on Spectator Attendance: A Regression Discontinuity Design Approach," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(5), pages 514-545, June.
  29. Pascal Flurin Meier & Raphael Flepp & Philippe Meier & Egon Franck, 2022. "Outcome Bias in Self-evaluations: Quasi-experimental Field Evidence of Swiss Driving License Exams," Working Papers 392, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
  30. Barry Reilly & Robert Witt, 2024. "The Effect of League Design on Club Revenues in the Scottish Premier League," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 1-28, January.
  31. Gábor Békés & Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, 2025. "Cultural Homophily and Collaboration in Superstar Teams," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 71(10), pages 8149-8168, October.
  32. Felix Holzmeister & Magnus Johannesson, 2025. "Skills vs. Luck: Decomposing Deviations from Expected Performance in European Football Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 26(8), pages 953-975, December.
  33. Deschamps, Pierre & De Sousa, José, 2021. "Labor mobility and racial discrimination," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
  34. Gábor Békés & Endre Borza & Márton Fleck, 2024. "Favoritism under multiple sources of social pressure," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(4), pages 1748-1769, October.
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