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COVID-19 epidemic in Slovakia through the lens of a parsimonious behavioral SIR model

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  • Michal Marencak

    (National Bank of Slovakia)

Abstract

This paper presents a parsimonious behavioral SIR model with compartments for hospitalized and vaccinated shares of population, contagion among vaccinated and loss of immunity. A model variant with vaccination, the transmission rate endogenously responding to the share of hospitalized patients, seasonal variation and pandemic fatigue matches the epidemic evolution from July 2020 to February 2022 in Slovakia remarkably well. We find that vaccination, despite being among the slowest in the EU, reduced the death toll in Slovakia by up to 18,500 deaths. Assuming the pace of EU countries with the highest vaccination rates lowers the cumulative deaths by another 8,000.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Marencak, 2022. "COVID-19 epidemic in Slovakia through the lens of a parsimonious behavioral SIR model," Working and Discussion Papers WP 2/2022, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    • Handle: RePEc:svk:wpaper:1086
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thomas Hale & Noam Angrist & Rafael Goldszmidt & Beatriz Kira & Anna Petherick & Toby Phillips & Samuel Webster & Emily Cameron-Blake & Laura Hallas & Saptarshi Majumdar & Helen Tatlow, 2021. "A global panel database of pandemic policies (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker)," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(4), pages 529-538, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ginters Bušs & Patrick Grüning, 2023. "Fiscal DSGE model for Latvia," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 2173915-217.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General
    • C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General

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