IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sus/susewp/2411.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Framework to Analyze the Impact of Exchange Rate: Uncertainty on Output Decisions

Author

Listed:
  • Gonzalo Varela

    (Department of Economics, University of Sussex)

Abstract

Southern Cone economies exhibit a high record of exchange rate volatility. In this context, rms tend to contract dollar debt, irrespective of their trade orientation, and without available hedging instruments. This exposes them to bankruptcy risk, in the event of large exchange rate movements. This paper provides a framework to analyze the output e ect of exchange rate uncertainty in that context, by focusing on the channel uncertainty-output that operates through the nancial strategy of the rm. We nd that increases in exchange rate uncertainty increase the probability of bankruptcy, thus increasing expected marginal bankruptcy costs, and reducing optimal output of a risk-neutral rm. Furthermore, we nd that rms with higher than average liquidity balances will face lower marginal bankruptcy costs, thus producing more than the average rm. The model displays persistence, as any shock to current pro ts a ects future liquidity balances, and so, future output. This framework can easily be extended to explain the response of other rms' decisions to exchange rate uncertainty, such as investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Gonzalo Varela, 2011. "A Framework to Analyze the Impact of Exchange Rate: Uncertainty on Output Decisions," Working Paper Series 2411, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    • Handle: RePEc:sus:susewp:2411
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sussex.ac.uk/economics/documents/wps24-2011-varela-2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2008. "Collective Risk Management in a Flight to Quality Episode," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2195-2230, October.
    2. Eduardo Borensztein & Kevin Cowan & Barry Eichengreen & Ugo Panizza (ed.), 2008. "Bond Markets in Latin America: On the Verge of a Big Bang?," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262026325, December.
    3. Paul A. Samuelson, 1970. "The Fundamental Approximation Theorem of Portfolio Analysis in terms of Means, Variances and Higher Moments," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 37(4), pages 537-542.
    4. Hawawini, Gabriel, 1978. "A mean-standard deviation exposition of the theory of the firm under uncertainty," MPRA Paper 10148, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Robert J. Barro, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(3), pages 823-866.
    6. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June.
    7. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2001. "Hedging and financial fragility in fixed exchange rate regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1151-1193.
    8. Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1993. "Financial Market Imperfections and Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(1), pages 77-114.
    9. Altman, Edward I, 1984. "A Further Empirical Investigation of the Bankruptcy Cost Question," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1067-1089, September.
    10. Nevins D. Baxter, 1967. "Leverage, Risk Of Ruin And The Cost Of Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 22(3), pages 395-403, September.
    11. Warner, Jerold B, 1977. "Bankruptcy Costs: Some Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 337-347, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Milan Nedeljkovic & Gonzalo Varela & Michele Savini Zangrandi, 2015. "Indonesia Current Account Assessment," World Bank Publications - Reports 22340, The World Bank Group.
    2. Brun,Martin & Gambetta,Juan Pedro & Varela,Gonzalo J., 2020. "Slow Rockets and Fast Feathers or the Link between Exchange Rates and Exports : A Case Study for Pakistan," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9353, The World Bank.
    3. Gonzalo Varela, 2011. "Real Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Output: A Sectoral Analysis," Working Paper Series 2011, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    4. Brun, Martin & Gambetta, Juan Pedro & Varela, Gonzalo J., 2022. "Why do exports react less to real exchange rate depreciations than to appreciations? Evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. J. Eric Bickel, 2006. "Some Determinants of Corporate Risk Aversion," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 3(4), pages 233-251, December.
    2. Drobetz, Wolfgang & Pensa, Pascal & Wöhle, Claudia B., 2004. "Kapitalstrukturtheorie in Theorie und Praxis: Ergebnisse einer Fragebogenuntersuchung," Working papers 2004/09, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    3. Correia, Ricardo & Población, Javier, 2015. "A structural model with Explicit Distress," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 112-130.
    4. Monda, Barbara & Giorgino, Marco & Modolin, Ileana, 2013. "Rationales for Corporate Risk Management - A Critical Literature Review," MPRA Paper 45420, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Sanjiva Prasad & Christopher J. Green & Victor Murinde, 2005. "Company Financial Structure: A Survey and Implications for Developing Economies," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Green & Colin Kirkpatrick & Victor Murinde (ed.), Finance and Development, chapter 12, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Abdul Rashid, 2017. "Capital structure adjustments: Do macroeconomic and business risks matter?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1463-1502, December.
    7. Wald, John, 1999. "Capital structure with dividend restrictions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 193-208, June.
    8. Maclachlan, Iain C, 2007. "An empirical study of corporate bond pricing with unobserved capital structure dynamics," MPRA Paper 28416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Glenn Boyle & Kelly Eckhold, 1997. "Capital structure choice and financial market liberalization: evidence from New Zealand," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 427-437.
    10. Sean Holly & Emiliano Santoro, 2007. "Financial Fragility, Heterogeneous Firms and the Cross Section of the Business Cycle," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 96, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    11. Bischi, Gian Italo & Gatti, Domenico Delli & Gallegati, Mauro, 2004. "Financial conditions, strategic interaction and complex dynamics: a game-theoretic model of financially driven fluctuations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 145-171, February.
    12. Clemente-Almendros, José A. & Sogorb-Mira, Francisco, 2018. "Costs of debt, tax benefits and a new measure of non-debt tax shields: examining debt conservatism in Spanish listed firms," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 162-175.
    13. Reint Gropp, 2002. "Local Taxes and Capital Structure Choice," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 9(1), pages 51-71, January.
    14. Jan Toporowski, 2013. "The Elgar Companion to Hyman Minsky," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 175-177, January.
    15. T. Pham & D. Chow, 1989. "Some Estimates of Direct and Indirect Bankruptcy Costs in Australia: September 1978–May 1983," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 14(1), pages 75-95, June.
    16. Oikawa, Koki, 2013. "Cyclical behavior of firm-level volatility: An explanation for the contrast between the United States and Japan," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 452-464.
    17. Shoaib Ali & Attiya Yasmin Javid, 2015. "Relationship between Credit Rating, Capital Structure and Earning Management Behaviour: Evidence from Pakistani Listed Firms," PIDE-Working Papers 2015:121, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    18. Sanjiva Prasad & Christopher J. Green & Victor Murinde, 2001. "Company Financing, Captial Structure, and Ownership: A Survey, and Implications for Developing Economies," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 12 edited by Morten Balling, May.
    19. Cinzia Genovino & Rosa Maria Caprino, 2018. "Il ruolo della banca nel processo di innovazione del modello di business," ESPERIENZE D'IMPRESA, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2018(2), pages 69-105.
    20. Agliari, Anna & Gatti, Domenico Delli & Gallegati, Mauro & Lenci, Stefano, 2006. "The complex dynamics of financially constrained heterogeneous firms," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 784-803, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates; Bankruptcy Costs; Production Under Uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sus:susewp:2411. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: University of Sussex Business School Communications Team (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ecsusuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.