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Un syndrome chinois plutot que hollandais

  • Macdonald, Ryan

Dans ce document, on procede a un examen empirique de la facon dont a evolue l'economie canadienne suite a la montee des prix des produits de base et a la valorisation du dollar canadien amorcees en 2003. Le reamenagement de l'industrie manufacturiere a merite une attention considerable, car cette industrie a ete heurtee de plein fouet par les pertes d'emplois. L'adaptation de l'industrie manufacturiere n'a toutefois pas ete simple. Un reamenagement complexe s'est plutot produit au sein du secteur de la fabrication, cause principalement par l'integration des pays emergents a l'economie mondiale. La montee des prix des produits de base et la baisse des prix des produits manufactures causees par cette integration ont touche differemment les industries manufacturieres productrices de biens durables et celles de biens non durables. Les fabricants de biens non durables ont eu tendance a voir leur competitivite s'affaiblir et leur production a eu tendance a baisser. Les fabricants de biens durables, en revanche, ont augmente leur production en reponse au boom des ressources et a une demande generalement plus elevee. La production manufacturiere est demeuree stable dans l'ensemble et a ete associee a une reorientation de la production de biens non durables vers celle de biens durables. La valorisation du dollar et la montee des prix des produits de base ont egalement cause un reamenagement industriel plus etendu au Canada. Les prix plus eleves des produits de base ont declenche un boom des ressources, surtout en Alberta. Ce boom a entraine une croissance de l'emploi dans les industries de ressources, alors que l'emploi dans les industries manufacturieres declinait, et une croissance de l'emploi dans les industries de services. Le boom a contribue a la migration interprovinciale et a augmente considerablement le pouvoir d'achat des revenus des canadiens suite a l'amelioration des termes de l'echange.

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Paper provided by Statistics Canada, Analyse economique in its series Apercus sur l'economie canadienne with number 2007017f.

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Date of creation: 16 Aug 2007
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Handle: RePEc:stc:stcp2f:2007017f
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  1. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-80, November.
  2. W.E. Diewert & Catherine J. Morrison, 1985. "Adjusting Output and Productivity Indexes for Changes in the Terms of Trade," NBER Working Papers 1564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-48, December.
  4. Macdonald, Ryan, 2007. "PIB reel et pouvoir d'achat de la production provinciale," Serie de documents de recherche sur l'analyse economique (AE) 2007046f, Statistics Canada, Direction des etudes analytiques.
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