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Selection in asset markets: the good, the bad, and the unknown

  • Giulio Bottazzi
  • Pietro Dindo

In this paper, we use a series of simple examples to illustrate how wealth-driven selection works in a market for Arrow securities. Our analysis delivers both a good and a bad message. The good message is that, when traders invest constant fractions of their wealth in each asset and have equal consumption rates, markets are informationally effcient: the best informed agent is rewarded and asset prices eventually reflect this information. However, and this is the bad message, when asset demands are not constant fractions of wealth but dependent upon prices, markets might behave suboptimally. In this case, asymptotic prices depend on preferences and beliefs of the whole ecology of traders and do not, in general, reflect the best available information. We show that the key difference between the two cases lies in the local, i.e. price dependent, versus global nature of wealth-driven selection.

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Paper provided by Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy in its series LEM Papers Series with number 2011/11.

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Date of creation: 17 May 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2011/11
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  1. Rabah Amir & Igor V. Evstigneev & Thorsten Hens & Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé, . "Market Selection and Survival of Investment Strategies," IEW - Working Papers 091, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  2. Anufriev, Mikhail & Dindo, Pietro, 2010. "Wealth-driven selection in a financial market with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 327-358, March.
  3. Bottazzi, Giulio & Dindo, Pietro, 2014. "Evolution and market behavior with endogenous investment rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 121-146.
  4. Anufriev, Mikhail & Bottazzi, Giulio, 2010. "Market equilibria under procedural rationality," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1140-1172, November.
  5. Evstigneev, Igor V. & Hens, Thorsten & Schenk-Hoppé, Klaus Reiner, 2005. "Globally Evolutionarily Stable Portfolio Rules," Discussion Papers 2005/17, Department of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics.
  6. Anufriev, Mikhail & Bottazzi, Giulio & Pancotto, Francesca, 2006. "Equilibria, stability and asymptotic dominance in a speculative market with heterogeneous traders," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1787-1835.
  7. repec:dgr:uvatin:20050056 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Sandroni, Alvaro, 2005. "Market selection when markets are incomplete," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 91-104, February.
  9. Lawrence Blume & David Easley, 2010. "Heterogeneity, Selection, and Wealth Dynamics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 425-450, 09.
  10. Alvaro Sandroni, 2000. "Do Markets Favor Agents Able to Make Accurate Predicitions?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1303-1342, November.
  11. Richard R. Nelson & Sidney G. Winter, 2002. "Evolutionary Theorizing in Economics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 23-46, Spring.
  12. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David, 1992. "Evolution and market behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 9-40, October.
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