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Excess Covariance and Dynamic Instability in a Multi-Asset Model

  • Anufriev, M.

    ()

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Bottazzi, G.

    (Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna)

  • Marsili, M.

    (The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics)

  • Pin, P.

    (University of Siena)

The presence of excess covariance in nancial price returns is an accepted empirical fact: the price dynamics of nancial assets tend to be more correlated than their fundamentals would justify. We propose an intertemporal equilibrium multi{assets model of nancial markets with an explicit and endogenous price dynamics. The market is driven by an exogenous stochastic process of dividend yields paid by the as- sets that we identify as market fundamentals. The model is rather flexible and allows for the coexistence of di erent trading strategies. The evolution of assets price and traders' wealth is described by a high-dimensional stochastic dynamical system. We identify the equi- libria of the model consistent with a baseline assumption of procedural rationality. We show that these equilibria are characterized by excess covariance in prices with respect to the dividend process. Moreover, we show that in equilibrium there is a positive expected marginal pro t in choosing more risky portfolios. As a consequence, the evolution- ary pressure generates a trend towards more remunerative strategies, which, in turn, increase the variance of prices and the dynamic insta- bility of the system.

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Paper provided by Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance in its series CeNDEF Working Papers with number 11-09.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:11-09
Contact details of provider: Postal: Dept. of Economics and Econometrics, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Roetersstraat 11, NL - 1018 WB Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Phone: + 31 20 525 52 58
Fax: + 31 20 525 52 83
Web page: http://www.fee.uva.nl/cendef/
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