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Selection in asset markets: the good, the bad, and the unknown

  • Giulio Bottazzi
  • Pietro Dindo

    ()

In this paper, we use a series of simple examples to illustrate how wealth-driven selection works in a market for Arrow securities. Our analysis delivers both a good and a bad message. The good message is that, when traders invest constant fractions of their wealth in each asset and have equal consumption rates, markets are informationally efficient: the best informed agent is rewarded and asset prices eventually reflect this information. However, and this is the bad message, when asset demands are not constant fractions of wealth but dependent upon prices, markets might behave sub-optimally. In this case, asymptotic prices depend on preferences and beliefs of the whole ecology of traders and do not, in general, reflect the best available information. We show that the key difference between the two cases lies in the local, i.e. price dependent, versus global nature of wealth-driven selection. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00191-013-0318-4
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Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Evolutionary Economics.

Volume (Year): 23 (2013)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 641-661

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Handle: RePEc:spr:joevec:v:23:y:2013:i:3:p:641-661
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  1. Lawrence Blume & David Easley, 2010. "Heterogeneity, Selection, and Wealth Dynamics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 425-450, 09.
  2. Rabah Amir & Igor V. Evstigneev & Thorsten Hens & Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé, 2002. "Market Selection and Survival of Investment Strategies," Discussion Papers 02-16, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  3. Anufriev, Mikhail & Bottazzi, Giulio, 2010. "Market equilibria under procedural rationality," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1140-1172, November.
  4. Alvaro Sandroni, 2000. "Do Markets Favor Agents Able to Make Accurate Predicitions?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1303-1342, November.
  5. Mikhail Anufriev & Pietro Dindo, 2007. "Wealth-driven Selection in a Financial Market with Heterogeneous Agents," LEM Papers Series 2007/27, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  6. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David, 1992. "Evolution and market behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 9-40, October.
  7. Evstigneev, Igor V. & Hens, Thorsten & Schenk-Hoppé, Klaus Reiner, 2005. "Globally Evolutionarily Stable Portfolio Rules," Discussion Papers 2005/17, Department of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics.
  8. Bottazzi, Giulio & Dindo, Pietro, 2014. "Evolution and market behavior with endogenous investment rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 121-146.
  9. Richard R. Nelson & Sidney G. Winter, 2002. "Evolutionary Theorizing in Economics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 23-46, Spring.
  10. Sandroni, Alvaro, 2005. "Market selection when markets are incomplete," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 91-104, February.
  11. Anufriev, Mikhail & Bottazzi, Giulio & Pancotto, Francesca, 2006. "Equilibria, stability and asymptotic dominance in a speculative market with heterogeneous traders," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1787-1835.
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