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Des conséquences conjoncturelles de la régulation monétaire

Author

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  • Henri Sterdyniak

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Pierre Villa

    (Laboratoire des Glucides)

Abstract

Dans les dernières années, de nombreuses banques centrales ont conduit leur politique monétaire de façon à atteindre un certain objectif pour un certain agrégat monétaire ou financier. Dans le cadre d'un pays de taille moyenne, en change fixe, l'article analyse de façon exhaustive la liaison entre le choix de l'agrégat financier contrôlé et la capacité de la politique monétaire à stabiliser la production et les réserves de change. La première partie de l'article fait le lien entre notre analyse et celle de l'article célèbre de Poole : elle introduit le vocabulaire utilisé qui s'inspire de B. Friedman. Un modèle simple, quasi comptable, est présenté dans la seconde partie. Il permet d'étudier la sensibilité des agrégats financiers au taux d'intérêt (troisième partie), les propriétés stabilisatrices de la politique monétaire selon l'agrégat contrôlé (quatrième partie) et enfin l'efficacité relative de la stabilisation de chaque agrégat selon la nature des chocs (demande, répartition, chocs financiers et spéculatifs) et le caractère contracyclique de la politique budgétaire et financière de l'Etat (cinquième partie). On montre que le contrôle de la niasse monétaire ou du total des actifs financiers internes (monnaie + titres) est souvent déstabilisant ou pervers (accentue les chocs). Il est toujours préférable de contrôler la composante interne de l'actif des institutions financières plutôt que leur passif (la composante interne de la monnaie centrale ou de la masse monétaire plutôt que la monnaie centrale ou la masse monétaire, les moyens de financement internes plutôt que les actifs financiers internes). Plutôt que les agrégats précédents, il vaut mieux prendre pour objectif des agrégats qui ne contiennent pas l'endettement public (refinancement, crédit bancaire, endettement privé interne en crédit et titres) si les autorités contrôlent bien les dépenses publiques et leur financement. Cependant, pour tous les agrégats étudiés, on peut mettre en évidence des cas où ils induisent des réactions perverses ou déstabilisantes.

Suggested Citation

  • Henri Sterdyniak & Pierre Villa, 1986. "Des conséquences conjoncturelles de la régulation monétaire," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5387, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5387
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Boyer, Russell S, 1978. "Optimal Foreign Exchange Market Intervention," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 1045-1055, December.
    2. Aftalion, Florin & White, Lawrence J., 1978. "On the choice of immediate monetary targets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-13, June.
    3. Parkin, Michael, 1978. "A Comparison of Alternative Techniques of Monetary Control under Rational Expectations," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 46(3), pages 252-287, September.
    4. William Poole, 1969. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model," Special Studies Papers 2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    6. Papademos, Lucas & Modigliani, Franco, 1983. "Inflation, financial and fiscal structure, and the monetary mechanism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1-2), pages 203-250.
    7. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1977. "The Inefficiency of Short-Run Monetary Targets for Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 8(2), pages 293-346.
    8. Don E. Roper & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1980. "Optimal Exchange Market Intervention in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 13(2), pages 296-309, May.
    9. William Poole, 1970. "Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 84(2), pages 197-216.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jérôme Creel & Henri Sterdyniak, 1999. "La politique monétaire sans monnaie," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 70(1), pages 111-153.
    2. Pierre Villa, 2009. "Equivalence entre taxation et permis d'émission échangeables," Working Papers 2009-05, CEPII research center.
    3. Fabrice Capoen & Henri Sterdyniak & Pierre Villa, 1994. "Indépendance des banques centrales, politiques monétaire et budgétaire : une approche stratégique," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 50(1), pages 65-102.
    4. Pierre Villa, 1991. "Règles de taux d'intérêt en changes flexibles et en présence de chocs permanents," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 42(5), pages 867-900.
    5. Charles Lantieri & Pascal Rivière, 1989. "Peut-on estimer la demande d'actifs à partir d'un modèle de portefeuille ?," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 40(1), pages 55-80.
    6. Virginie Coudert & Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi & Michel Boutillier & Richard Topol, 1987. "Les fonctions de réaction des autorités monétaires allemandes, françaises et anglaises," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 19(1), pages 175-188.
    7. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2961 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jesús & Schulte, Ernst & Schmuck, Guido & Camia, Andrea, 2013. "The European Forest Fire Information System in the context of environmental policies of the European Union," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 19-25.

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