IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/spa/wpaper/2016wpecon11.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Previdência e taxa de juros no Brasil

Author

Listed:
  • Brian Bolarinwa Ogundairo
  • Mauro Rodrigues

    ()

Abstract

O presente trabalho relaciona a alta taxa de juros real brasileira com o elevado gasto em previdência sob um regime de repartição. Para tanto, utilizamos uma versão padrão do modelo de gerações sobrepostas, com um regime de previdência misto (isto é, parte capitalização e parte repartição). O modelo é calibrado para a economia brasileira no período 2000-2014. Considera-se um estado estacionário inicial de modo a reproduzir a taxa de juros real média nesse período, sob um regime totalmente do tipo repartição. Simula-se então uma mudança para replicar os gastos em previdência do Chile, um país com um sistema majoritariamente do tipo capitalização. Em nossa especificação preferida, o modelo prevê uma queda de 1 ponto percentual na taxa de juros real (ao ano) de longo prazo. Isso corresponde a 18% do diferencial médio de juros entre Brasil e Chile no período 2000-2014.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian Bolarinwa Ogundairo & Mauro Rodrigues, 2016. "Previdência e taxa de juros no Brasil," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2016_11, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
  • Handle: RePEc:spa:wpaper:2016wpecon11
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.repec.eae.fea.usp.br/documentos/Ogundairo_Rodrigues_11WP.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alex Segura-Ubiergo, 2012. "The Puzzle of Brazil's High Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 12/62, International Monetary Fund.
    2. repec:ekm:wpaper:v:35:y:2015:i:1:a:1430 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467-467.
    4. Márcio Holland & Edmar L. Bacha & Fernando M. Gonçalves, 2007. "Is Brazil Different? Risk, Dollarization, and Interest Rates in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 07/294, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Marcelo Abi-Ramia Caetano & Rogério Boueri Miranda, 2007. "Comparativo Internacional para a Previdência Social," Discussion Papers 1302, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    6. Gomes, Victor & Pessôa, Samuel de Abreu & Veloso, Fernando A., 2003. "Evolução da produtividade total dos fatores na economia brasileira: uma análise comparativa," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 483, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    7. Tarsila Segalla Afanasieff & Priscilla Maria Villa Lhacer & Márcio I. Nakane, 2002. "The Determinants of Bank Interest Spread in Brazil," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 183-207, July-Dece.
    8. Nelson Souza-Sobrinho, 2010. "Macroeconomics of bank interest spreads: evidence from Brazil," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-32, January.
    9. Jose Alves Dantas & Otavio Ribeiro de Medeiros & Lucio Rodrigues Capelletto, 2011. "Determinantes do Spread Bancário Ex-Post no Mercado Brasileiro," Working Papers Series 242, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    10. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834.
    11. Almeida, Fernanda Dantas & Divino, José Angelo, 2015. "Determinants of the banking spread in the Brazilian economy: The role of micro and macroeconomic factors," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 29-39.
    12. Roberto de Rezende Rocha & Marcelo Abi-Ramia Caetano, 2008. "O sistema Previdenciário Brasileiro: Uma Avaliação de Desempenho Comparada," Discussion Papers 1331, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    real interest rate; pensions; Brazil; overlapping generations;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spa:wpaper:2016wpecon11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Pedro Garcia Duarte). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/deuspbr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.