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VAT Evasion in Bulgaria: A General-Equilibrium Approach

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  • Aleksandar Vasilev

    (Department of Economics, American University in Bulgaria)

Abstract

This paper utilizes an otherwise standard micro-founded general-equilibrium setup, which is augmented with a revenue-extraction mechanism to assess the magnitude of VAT evasion. The model is calibrated to Bulgaria after the introduction of the currency board (1999-2014), as one of the very few countries in Europe with a non-di erentiated consumption tax rate, and an economy where VAT revenue makes almost half of total government tax revenue. A computational experiment performed within this setup estimates that on average, the size of evaded VAT is a bit more than one-fourth of output, an estimate which is in line with the gures provided in both Philip (2014) and the European Commission (2014). In addition, model-based simulations suggest that increases in spending on law and order could generate substantial welfare gains by decreasing VAT evasion.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksandar Vasilev, 2016. "VAT Evasion in Bulgaria: A General-Equilibrium Approach," Bulgarian Economic Papers bep-2016-09, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Sofia University St Kliment Ohridski - Bulgaria // Center for Economic Theories and Policies at Sofia University St Kliment Ohridski, revised Oct 2016.
  • Handle: RePEc:sko:wpaper:bep-2016-09
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    7. Pashev, Konstantin, 2006. "Fighting VAT Fraud: The Bulgarian Experience," MPRA Paper 998, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2018. "Optimal fiscal policy with environmental tax and abatement spending in a model with pollution and utility-enhancing environmental quality: the case of Bulgaria," EconStor Preprints 175661, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    2. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2020. "A business-cycle model with a modified cash-in-advance feature, government sector and one-period nominal wage contracts: the case of Bulgaria," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 19-38.
    3. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2018. "Are habits important for the propagation of business cycle fluctuations in Bulgaria?," EconStor Preprints 182501, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    4. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2020. "A business-cycle-model with monopolistically-competitive firms and Calvo wages: Lessons for Bulgaria (1999-2018)," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    5. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2021. "A Real-Business-Cycle model with endogenous discounting and a government sector," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    6. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2019. "The role of energy in a real-business-cycle model with an endogenous capital utilization rate and a government sector: lessons from Bulgaria (1999-2016)," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 130-141.
    7. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2019. "Optimal fiscal policy with environmental tax and pollution abatement spending in a model with utility-enhancing environmental quality: lessons from Bulgaria," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 24-35, January.
    8. Vasilev Aleksandar, 2020. "Are “fair” wages quantitatively important for business cycle fluctuations in Bulgaria?," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 20(1), pages 91-105, March.
    9. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2018. "A Real-Business-Cycle model with reciprocity in labor relations and a government sector," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 61(2), pages 47-76.
    10. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2020. "Are labor unions important for business cycle fluctuations? Lessons from Bulgaria," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(1), pages 143-161, March.
    11. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2021. "Progressive taxation and (in)stability in an exogenous growth model with Epstein-Zin recursive preferences," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 64(1), pages 51-68.
    12. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2017. "Business Cycle Accounting: Bulgaria after the introduction of the currency board arrangement (1999-2014)," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 197-219.
    13. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2018. "Is consumption-Laffer curve hump-shaped? The VAT evasion channel," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 598-609.
    14. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2020. "Optimal Fiscal Policy with Epstein–Zin Preferences and Utility-Enhancing Government Services: Lessons from Bulgaria (1999–2016)," Problems of Economic Transition, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 62(1-2), pages 133-146, February.
    15. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2018. "A real-business-cycle model with pollution and environmental taxation: the case of Bulgaria," Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 441-451, October.
    16. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2017. "A Real-Business-Cycle Model with Reciprocity in Labor Relations and Fiscal Policy: The Case of Bulgaria," Bulgarian Economic Papers bep-2017-03, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Sofia University St Kliment Ohridski - Bulgaria // Center for Economic Theories and Policies at Sofia University St Kliment Ohridski, revised Mar 2017.
    17. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2018. "The role of energy in a real-business-cycle model with an endogenous capital utilization rate and a government sector: the case of Bulgaria (1999-2016)," EconStor Preprints 173966, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    18. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2019. "Taxation and welfare: measuring the effect of Bulgaria’s 2007-08 corporate-personal income tax reforms," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    19. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2020. "A Real-business-cycle Model with a Stochastic Capital Share: Lessons for Bulgaria (1999–2018)," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 14(1), pages 107-121, February.
    20. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2020. "Does the form of the Aggregate Production Function Matter for Modelling Business Cycle Fluctuations? Lessons for Bulgaria (1999-2018)," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 81-86.
    21. Jun E Rentschler & Nobuhiro Hosoe, 2017. "Illicit dealings: Fossil fuel subsidy reforms and the role of tax evasion and smuggling," GRIPS Discussion Papers 17-05, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    22. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2018. "Optimal fiscal policy in the presence of VAT evasion: the case of Bulgaria," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 399-414.
    23. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2016. "Is consumption-Laffer curve hump-shaped? The role of VAT evasion," EconStor Preprints 147001, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    24. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2018. "A business-cycle-model with monopolistically-competitive intermediary firms and sticky nominal wages: the case of Bulgaria after the introduction of the currency board (1999-2016)," EconStor Preprints 175183, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    25. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2018. "An RBC model with Epstein-Zin (non-expected-utility) recursive preferences: lessons from Bulgaria (1999-2016)," EconStor Preprints 182577, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    VAT evasion; general equilibrium; Bulgaria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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