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VAT Evasion in Bulgaria: A General-Equilibrium Approach

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  • Aleksandar Vasilev

    (Department of Economics, American University in Bulgaria)

Abstract

This paper utilizes an otherwise standard micro-founded general-equilibrium setup, which is augmented with a revenue-extraction mechanism to assess the magnitude of VAT evasion. The model is calibrated to Bulgaria after the introduction of the currency board (1999-2014), as one of the very few countries in Europe with a non-di erentiated consumption tax rate, and an economy where VAT revenue makes almost half of total government tax revenue. A computational experiment performed within this setup estimates that on average, the size of evaded VAT is a bit more than one-fourth of output, an estimate which is in line with the gures provided in both Philip (2014) and the European Commission (2014). In addition, model-based simulations suggest that increases in spending on law and order could generate substantial welfare gains by decreasing VAT evasion.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksandar Vasilev, 2016. "VAT Evasion in Bulgaria: A General-Equilibrium Approach," Bulgarian Economic Papers bep-2016-09, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Sofia University St Kliment Ohridski - Bulgaria // Center for Economic Theories and Policies at Sofia University St Kliment Ohridski, revised Oct 2016.
    • Handle: RePEc:sko:wpaper:bep-2016-09
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. de Melo, Jaime & Roland-Holst, David & Haddad, Mona, 1992. "Tax evasion and tax reform in a low income economy : general equilibrium estimates for Madagascar," Policy Research Working Paper Series 918, The World Bank.
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    5. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2015. "The welfare effect of flat income tax reform: the case of Bulgaria," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 53(3), pages 205-220.
    6. María Teresa Álvarez Martínez & José Clemente Polo Andrés, 2013. "A general equilibrium evaluation of tax policies in Spain during the Great Recession," Documentos de trabajo - Analise Economica 0053, IDEGA - Instituto Universitario de Estudios e Desenvolvemento de Galicia.
    7. Kehoe, Timothy J. & Noyola, Pedro Javier & Manresa, Antonio & Polo, Clemente & Sancho, Ferran, 1988. "A general equilibrium analysis of the 1986 tax reform in Spain," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(2-3), pages 334-342, March.
    8. Pashev, Konstantin, 2006. "Fighting VAT Fraud: The Bulgarian Experience," MPRA Paper 998, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    VAT evasion; general equilibrium; Bulgaria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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