Unintended Consequences from Nested State & Federal Regulations: The Case of the Pavley Greenhouse-Gas-per-Mile Limits
Fourteen U.S. states recently pledged to adopt limits on greenhouse gases (GHGs) per mile of light-duty automobiles. Previous analyses predicted that these limits will yield significant reductions in GHGs. However, these studies did not consider critical factors that imply different results. This paper develops a multi-period numerical simulation model that accounts for these factors in assessing the impact of the proposed GHG-per-mile standards on U.S. gasoline consumption and GHG emissions. We find that while the state-level initiative would reduce significantly the emissions associated with new cars in the adopting states, it would give rise to very significant offsetting increases (“leakage”) elsewhere, in both new and used car markets. Because of interactions with the federal CAFE standard, technology spillovers mitigate leakage only slightly. In the most plausible scenarios considered, the leakage is around 70 percent. Correspondingly, the cost per gallon saved under the GHG-per-mile limits is about 72 percent higher than for an equivalent increase in the federal CAFE standard.
|Date of creation:||Aug 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 366 Galvez Street, Stanford, California 94305-6015|
Phone: (650) 725-1874
Fax: (650) 723-8611
Web page: http://siepr.stanford.edu
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bento, Antonio M. & Goulder, Lawrence H. & Jacobsen, Mark R. & von Haefen, Roger H., 2007.
"Distributional and Efficiency Impacts of Increased U.S. Gasoline Taxes,"
127021, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
- Antonio M. Bento & Lawrence H. Goulder & Mark R. Jacobsen & Roger H. von Haefen, 2009. "Distributional and Efficiency Impacts of Increased US Gasoline Taxes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 667-99, June.
- Thomas Klier & Joshua Linn, 2012.
"New‐vehicle characteristics and the cost of the Corporate Average Fuel Economy standard,"
RAND Journal of Economics,
RAND Corporation, vol. 43(1), pages 186-213, 03.
- Thomas H. Klier & Joshua Linn, 2008. "New vehicle characteristics and the cost of the corporate average fuel economy standard," Working Paper Series WP-08-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Kenneth A. Small & Kurt Van Dender, 2007.
"Fuel Efficiency and Motor Vehicle Travel: The Declining Rebound Effect,"
The Energy Journal,
International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 25-52.
- Kenneth A. Small & Kurt Van Dender, 2006. "Fuel Efficiency and Motor Vehicle Travel: The Declining Rebound Effect," Working Papers 050603, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
- Soren T. Anderson & James M. Sallee, 2011.
"Using Loopholes to Reveal the Marginal Cost of Regulation: The Case of Fuel-Economy Standards,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1375-1409, June.
- Soren T. Anderson & James M. Sallee, 2009. "Using Loopholes to Reveal the Marginal Cost of Regulation: The Case of Fuel-Economy Standards," Working Papers 0901, Harris School of Public Policy Studies, University of Chicago.
- Bushnell, James & Peterman, Carla & Wolfram, Catherine, 2008.
"Local Solutions to Global Problems: Climate Change Policies and Regulatory Jurisdiction,"
Staff General Research Papers
13125, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- James Bushnell & Carla Peterman & Catherine Wolfram, 2008. "Local Solutions to Global Problems: Climate Change Policies and Regulatory Jurisdiction," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 2(2), pages 175-193, Summer.
- Harrington, Winston & McConnell, Virginia & Alberini, Anna, 1998. "Fleet Turnover and Old Car Scrap Policies," Discussion Papers dp-98-23, Resources For the Future.
- Christopher R. Knittel, 2009.
"Automobiles on Steroids: Product Attribute Trade-Offs and Technological Progress in the Automobile Sector,"
NBER Working Papers
15162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christopher R. Knittel, 2011. "Automobiles on Steroids: Product Attribute Trade-Offs and Technological Progress in the Automobile Sector," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3368-99, December.
- Felder Stefan & Rutherford Thomas F., 1993. "Unilateral CO2 Reductions and Carbon Leakage: The Consequences of International Trade in Oil and Basic Materials," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 162-176, September.
- Robert W. Hahn, 1995. "An Economic Analysis of Scrappage," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 26(2), pages 222-242, Summer.
- Barker, Terry & Junankar, Sudhir & Pollitt, Hector & Summerton, Philip, 2007. "Carbon leakage from unilateral Environmental Tax Reforms in Europe, 1995-2005," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6281-6292, December.
- Davis, Lucas, 2009.
"International Trade in Used Vehicles: The Environmental Consequences of NAFTA,"
Department of Economics, Working Paper Series
qt98j8m3r6, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Lucas W. Davis & Matthew E. Kahn, 2010. "International Trade in Used Vehicles: The Environmental Consequences of NAFTA," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 58-82, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sip:dpaper:08-049. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anne Shor)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.