IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/she/wpaper/2012001.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Forecasting and Stress-testing the Risk-based Capital Requirements for Revolving Retail Exposures

Author

Listed:
  • Dunbar, Kwamie

    (John F. Welch College of Business, Sacred Heart University)

Abstract

This paper presents a tractable and empirically sound technique for generating stressed probabilities of default (PDs) which are then used to derive loss rates for the provisioning of a bank’s risk-based capital. This work is in response to the recent regulatory findings attributed to the Supervisory Capital Assessment Program (SCAP) stress tests of 2009 which revealed weaknesses in the existing regulatory and economic capital approaches. The SCAP projected losses of approximately $82.4 Billion in banks’ credit card portfolios for 2010, highlighting the need for better forecasting and stress testing of revolving retail exposures. This study proposes a timely model that will improve the ability of banks to determine the capital adequacy of revolving retail exposures. Using options theory we discuss why an obligor may default and produce estimates of expected losses from our stressed PDs so as to determine loss provisions. This method relies on the simulation of PD distributions via changes in selected macroeconomic variables and the card holder’s debt to income ratio (DTIR). The methodology offers the flexibility of being tractable and scalable to data in the issuer’s credit card portfolio by geography and credit quality of the obligor.

Suggested Citation

  • Dunbar, Kwamie, 2012. "Forecasting and Stress-testing the Risk-based Capital Requirements for Revolving Retail Exposures," Working Papers 2012001, Sacred Heart University, John F. Welch College of Business.
    • Handle: RePEc:she:wpaper:2012001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repec.sacredheart.edu/she/pdf/wp2012_001.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2012
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bank for International Settlements, 2005. "Stress testing at major financial institutions: survey results and practice," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 24, december.
    2. Daniel Rösch & Harald Scheule, 2004. "Forecasting Retail Portfolio Credit Risk," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 5(2), pages 16-32, February.
    3. repec:uts:ppaper:2004:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Edward S. Knotek, 2007. "How useful is Okun's law?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 92(Q IV), pages 73-103.
    5. Daniel Rösch & Harald Scheule, 2004. "Forecasting Retail Portfolio Credit Risk," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 5(2), pages 16-32, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bellotti, Tony & Crook, Jonathan, 2011. "Forecasting and Stress Testing Credit Card Default Using Dynamic Models," Working Papers 11-34, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    2. Hamerle, Alfred & Knapp, Michael & Wildenauer, Nicole, 2005. "Auswirkungen unterschiedlicher Assetkorrelationen in Mehr-Sektoren-Kreditportfoliomodellen," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 409, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    3. Wang, Zheqi & Crook, Jonathan & Andreeva, Galina, 2020. "Reducing estimation risk using a Bayesian posterior distribution approach: Application to stress testing mortgage loan default," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(2), pages 725-738.
    4. Bellotti, Tony & Crook, Jonathan, 2013. "Forecasting and stress testing credit card default using dynamic models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 563-574.
    5. Siyi Wang & Xing Yan & Bangqi Zheng & Hu Wang & Wangli Xu & Nanbo Peng & Qi Wu, 2021. "Risk and return prediction for pricing portfolios of non-performing consumer credit," Papers 2110.15102, arXiv.org.
    6. Vahid Baradaran & Maryam Keshavarz, 2017. "System dynamics modelling of retailers' credit risk," International Journal of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 26(3), pages 380-396.
    7. Cho, Yongbok & Lee, Yongwoong, 2022. "Asymmetric asset correlation in credit portfolios," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    8. Muteba Mwamba, John Weirstrass & Mhlophe, Bongani, 2019. "Modelling Asset Correlations of Revolving Loan Defaults in South Africa," MPRA Paper 97340, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Jonathan Crook & Tony Bellotti, 2010. "Time varying and dynamic models for default risk in consumer loans," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 173(2), pages 283-305, April.
    10. Malik, Madhur & Thomas, Lyn C., 2012. "Transition matrix models of consumer credit ratings," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 261-272.
    11. Yi-Ping Chang & Chih-Tun Yu, 2014. "Bayesian confidence intervals for probability of default and asset correlation of portfolio credit risk," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 331-361, February.
    12. J. Crook & T. Bellotti, 2012. "Asset correlations for credit card defaults," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 87-95, January.
    13. Petrus Strydom, 2017. "Macro economic cycle effect on mortgage and personal loan default rates," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 7(6), pages 1-1.
    14. Palombini, Edgardo, 2009. "Factor models and the credit risk of a loan portfolio," MPRA Paper 20107, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Pawel Siarka, 2021. "Global Portfolio Credit Risk Management: The US Banks Post-Crisis Challenge," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-19, March.
    16. Lee, Yongwoong & Poon, Ser-Huang, 2014. "Forecasting and decomposition of portfolio credit risk using macroeconomic and frailty factors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 69-92.
    17. Santiago Gamba-Santamaria & Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia & Camilo Orozco-Vanegas, 2021. "What can credit vintages tell us about non-performing loans?," Borradores de Economia 1154, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    18. Alejandro Ferrer Pérez & José Casals Carro & Sonia Sotoca López, 2014. "A new approach to the unconditional measurement of default risk," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2014-11, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    19. Ngoo Yee Ting & Loi Siew Ling, 2011. "Okun’S Law In Malaysia: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Ardl) Approach With Hodrick-Prescott (Hp) Filter," Journal of Global Business and Economics, Global Research Agency, vol. 2(1), pages 95-103, January.
    20. Michael Christl & Monika Köppl-Turyna & Dénes Kucsera, 2017. "Okun's Law in Austria," DANUBE: Law and Economics Review, European Association Comenius - EACO, issue 2, pages 97-110, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital Requirement; Stress-test; capital adequacy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:she:wpaper:2012001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dr. Khawaja Mamun (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sbschus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.