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The Effects of Conflict on Fertility: Evidence from the Genocide in Rwanda

Author

Listed:
  • Kati Kraehnert

    (German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin))

  • Tilman Brück

    (International Security and Development Center (ISDC), Berlin, Germany and Leibniz Institute of Vegetable and Ornamental Crops (IGZ))

  • Michele Di Maio

    (Università di Napoli Parthenope)

  • Roberto Nisticò

    (Università di Napoli Federico II and CSEF)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of the 1994 genocide in Rwanda on fertility outcomes. We study the effects of violence on both the timing of the first birth after the genocide and the total number of post-genocide births. We analyze individual-level data from several Demographic and Health Surveys, using event history and count data models. The paper contributes to the literature on the demographic effects of violent conflict by testing two channels through which conflict influences subsequent fertility. First, the type of violence exposure as measured by child death as well as by the death of a woman’s sibling. Second, the conflict-induced change in local demographic conditions as captured by the change in the commune-level sex ratio. Results indicate that the genocide has heterogeneous effects on fertility, depending on the type of violence experienced by the woman, her age cohort, parity, and the time horizon (5, 10, and 15 years after the genocide). There is strong evidence of a replacement effect. Having experienced the death of a child during the genocide reduces the time to the first birth after the genocide and increases the total number of births in the post-genocide period. Experiencing a sibling death during the genocide significantly lowers fertility in the long run. The effect is strongest if a woman loses a younger sister. Finally, the genocide-induced reduction in the sex ratio has a strong negative impact on fertility, both in terms of the timing of the first birth and the total number of births after the genocide.

Suggested Citation

  • Kati Kraehnert & Tilman Brück & Michele Di Maio & Roberto Nisticò, 2017. "The Effects of Conflict on Fertility: Evidence from the Genocide in Rwanda," CSEF Working Papers 481, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:sef:csefwp:481
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    Cited by:

    1. Signe Svallfors, 2024. "Milestone Moments: Community Violence and Women's Life‐Course Transitions in Colombia, the Dominican Republic, and Guatemala," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 50(3), pages 791-824, September.
    2. Torrisi, Orsola, 2024. "Violent instability and modern contraception: Evidence from Mali," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    3. Brian C. Thiede & Matthew Hancock & Ahmed Kodouda & James Piazza, 2020. "Exposure to Armed Conflict and Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(6), pages 2113-2141, December.
    4. Becker, Sascha O. & Mukand, Sharun & Yotzov, Ivan, 2022. "Persecution, pogroms and genocide: A conceptual framework and new evidence," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    5. Kien Le & My Nguyen, 2023. "Armed conflicts and women's authority in intra‐household decision making," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 70(3), pages 249-267, July.
    6. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Sven Fischer, 2023. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Marriage and Childbirth: Survey-based Evidence from Iran," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202320, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    7. M Prem & M. E. Guerra & P Rodr�guez & J. F. Vargas, 2020. "The Peace Baby Boom: Evidence from Colombia’s peace agreement with the FARC," Documentos de Trabajo 18430, Universidad del Rosario.
    8. Laura Rodríguez, 2022. "Violence and newborn health: Estimates for Colombia," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 112-136, January.
    9. Tatsuki Inoue amd Erika Igarashi, 2023. "The far-reaching effects of bombing on fertility in mid-20th century Japan," Papers 2306.05770, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    10. Satoshi Shimizutani & Eiji Yamada, 2021. "Long-term Consequences of Civil War in Tajikistan: Schooling and International Migration Outcomes," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2021-014, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    11. Gautier, Thomas, 2025. "From missing brothers to educated sisters: The effects of victimization during the Rwandan genocide," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 318207, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    12. Abay, Kibrom A. & Tafere, Kibrom & Berhane, Guush & Chamberlin, Jordan & Abay, Mehari H., 2023. "Near-real-time welfare and livelihood impacts of an active war: Evidence from Ethiopia," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    13. Lungu, Eric & Rozelle, Jeffrey W. & Smith-Greenaway, Emily, 2025. "Fatalism or vigilance? Exposure to infant and maternal deaths and subsequent use of maternal health services in Malawi," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    14. Khandaker Jafor Ahmed & Yan Tan & Dianne Rudd, 2024. "Exploring the relationship between changes in fertility and disasters: a review of the literature," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 1-29, March.
    15. Powdthavee, Nattavudh & Oswald, Andrew J. & Lockwood, Ben, 2024. "Are environmental concerns deterring people from having children? Longitudinal evidence on births in the UK," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    16. Di Maio, Michele & Leone Sciabolazza, Valerio, 2023. "Conflict exposure and labour market outcomes: Evidence from longitudinal data for the Gaza Strip," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    17. Elice, Paola & Martínez Flores, Fernanda & Reichert, Arndt R., 2023. "Religious terrorism, forced migration, and women's empowerment: Evidence from the Boko Haram insurgency," Ruhr Economic Papers 1044, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    18. Bove, Vincenzo & Di Salvatore, Jessica & Elia, Leandro & Nisticò, Roberto, 2024. "Mothers at peace: International peacebuilding and post-conflict fertility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    19. Michelle L. O’Brien, 2021. "The Consequences of the Tajikistani Civil War for Abortion and Miscarriage," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 40(5), pages 1061-1084, October.
    20. Piero Ronzani & Wolfgang Stojetz & Carlo Azzarri & Gianluigi Nico & Erdgin Mane & Tilman Brück, 2024. "Armed conflict and gendered participation in agrifood systems: Survey evidence from 29 African countries," HiCN Working Papers 409, Households in Conflict Network.
    21. Orsola Torrisi, 2020. "Armed Conflict and the Timing of Childbearing in Azerbaijan," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 46(3), pages 501-556, September.
    22. Abay, Kibrom A. & Tafere, Kibrom & Berhane, Guush & Chamberlin, Jordan & Abay, Mehari Hiluf, 2022. "Near-real-time welfare and livelihood impacts of an active civil war: Evidence from Ethiopia," IFPRI discussion papers 2108, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    23. Andrés Felipe Castro Torres & B. Piedad Urdinola, 2019. "Armed Conflict and Fertility in Colombia, 2000–2010," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 38(2), pages 173-213, April.
    24. Seunghun Chung & Abdul Noury, 2025. "Impact of Islamist Uprising on Human Capital and Demographics: Evidence from Mali," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 472-529, June.
    25. Reilly Barry & Sam Hannah, 2022. "The distributional impact of the Sierra Leone conflict on household welfare," IZA Journal of Development and Migration, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 13(1), pages 1-41, January.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • N47 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Africa; Oceania
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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