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The Effects of Conflict on Fertility: Evidence from the Genocide in Rwanda

Author

Listed:
  • Kati Kraehnert

    (German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin))

  • Tilman Brück

    (International Security and Development Center (ISDC), Berlin, Germany and Leibniz Institute of Vegetable and Ornamental Crops (IGZ))

  • Michele Di Maio

    (Università di Napoli Parthenope)

  • Roberto Nisticò

    (Università di Napoli Federico II and CSEF)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of the 1994 genocide in Rwanda on fertility outcomes. We study the effects of violence on both the timing of the first birth after the genocide and the total number of post-genocide births. We analyze individual-level data from several Demographic and Health Surveys, using event history and count data models. The paper contributes to the literature on the demographic effects of violent conflict by testing two channels through which conflict influences subsequent fertility. First, the type of violence exposure as measured by child death as well as by the death of a woman’s sibling. Second, the conflict-induced change in local demographic conditions as captured by the change in the commune-level sex ratio. Results indicate that the genocide has heterogeneous effects on fertility, depending on the type of violence experienced by the woman, her age cohort, parity, and the time horizon (5, 10, and 15 years after the genocide). There is strong evidence of a replacement effect. Having experienced the death of a child during the genocide reduces the time to the first birth after the genocide and increases the total number of births in the post-genocide period. Experiencing a sibling death during the genocide significantly lowers fertility in the long run. The effect is strongest if a woman loses a younger sister. Finally, the genocide-induced reduction in the sex ratio has a strong negative impact on fertility, both in terms of the timing of the first birth and the total number of births after the genocide.

Suggested Citation

  • Kati Kraehnert & Tilman Brück & Michele Di Maio & Roberto Nisticò, 2017. "The Effects of Conflict on Fertility: Evidence from the Genocide in Rwanda," CSEF Working Papers 481, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  • Handle: RePEc:sef:csefwp:481
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Child death; fertility; genocide; Rwanda; sex ratio; sibling death.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • N47 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Africa; Oceania
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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