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Evaluating Government Policy in Transition Countries

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  • Max Gillman

Abstract

The paper examines neoclassical measures to evaluate government policy in transition countries: 1) marginal factor prices and the return to capital, 2) growth rates and taxes, 3) inflation rates, and 4) debt/GDP ratios, related to international real business cycle and endogenous growth theory. It further postulates a way to consider the debt/equity position of the government, related to a risk-yield framework. This gives a potentially more useful indicator than the debt/GDP ratio alone. Empirically these measures are examined in an illustrative way for a set of Central European countries plus Germany and the US for comparison, for the period of 1990-1998, using an internally standardized data set from the on-line International Financial Statistics.

Suggested Citation

  • Max Gillman, 1999. "Evaluating Government Policy in Transition Countries," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0156, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:sec:cnstan:0156
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    File URL: http://www.case-research.eu/upload/publikacja_plik/SA156.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stokey, Nancy L & Rebelo, Sergio, 1995. "Growth Effects of Flat-Rate Taxes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 519-550, June.
    2. Wu, Yangru & Zhang, Junxi, 1998. "Endogenous growth and the welfare costs of inflation: a reconsideration," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 465-482, March.
    3. Bansal, Ravi & Coleman, Wilbur John, II, 1996. "A Monetary Explanation of the Equity Premium, Term Premium, and Risk-Free Rate Puzzles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(6), pages 1135-1171, December.
    4. S. Rao Aiyagari & R. Anton Braun & Zvi Eckstein, 1998. "Transaction Services, Inflation, and Welfare," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(6), pages 1274-1301, December.
    5. De Gregorio, Jose, 1996. "Inflation, growth, and central banks : theory and evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1575, The World Bank.
    6. Jones, Larry E & Manuelli, Rodolfo E & Rossi, Peter E, 1993. "Optimal Taxation in Models of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(3), pages 485-517, June.
    7. Gomme, Paul, 1993. "Money and growth revisited : Measuring the costs of inflation in an endogenous growth model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 51-77, August.
    8. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1998. "Inflation crises and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, February.
    9. Ireland, Peter N, 1994. "Money and Growth: An Alternative Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 47-65, March.
    10. Joanna Siwinska-Gorzelak, 1999. "Public Debt Structure and Dynamics in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0162, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
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    Keywords

    government policy; transition countries;

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