The Negative Inflation-Growth Effect: Theory and Evidence
The paper presents a monetary model of endogenous growth and specifies an econometric model consistent with it. The economic model suggests a negative inflation-growth effect, and one that is stronger at lower levels of inflation. Empirical evaluation of the model is based on a large panel of OECD and APEC member countries over the years 1961-1997. The hypothesized negative inflation effect is found comprehensively for the OECD countries to be significant and, as in the theory, to increase marginally as the inflation rate falls. For APEC countries, the results from using instrumental variables also show significant evidence of a similar behavior.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2001|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010 Australia|
Phone: +61 3 8344 2100
Fax: +61 3 8344 2111
Web page: http://www.melbourneinstitute.com/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fischer, Stanley, 1993.
"The role of macroeconomic factors in growth,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
- Max Gillman & Anton Nakov, 2003. "A Revised Tobin Effect from Inflation: Relative Input Price and Capital Ratio Realignments, USA and UK, 1959-1999," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 70(279), pages 439-450, 08.
- Mundlak, Yair, 1978. "On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 69-85, January.
- Miguel Sidrauski, 1967. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 796.
- Robert J. Barro, 2012.
"Inflation and Economic Growth,"
CEMA Working Papers
568, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
- Atish R. Ghosh & Steven Phillips, 1998. "Inflation, Disinflation, and Growth," IMF Working Papers 98/68, International Monetary Fund.
- Peter N. Ireland, 1998.
"Does the Time-Consistency Problem Explain the Behavior of Inflation in the United States?,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
415, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Ireland, Peter N., 1999. "Does the time-consistency problem explain the behavior of inflation in the United States?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 279-291, October.
- Peter Ireland, 1998. "Matlab code for Does the Time-Consistency Problem Explain the Behavior of Inflation in the United States?," QM&RBC Codes 44, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Stockman, Alan C., 1981. "Anticipated inflation and the capital stock in a cash in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 387-393.
- Robert E. Lucas Jr. & Nancy L. Stokey, 1984.
"Money and Interest in Cash-In-Advance Economy,"
628, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Henry E. Siu, 2000.
"Growth and business cycles,"
271, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Equilibrium in a Pure Currency Economy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(2), pages 203-20, April.
- Casey B. Mulligan & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Extensive Margins and the Demand for Money at Low Interest Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(5), pages 961-991, October.
- Ireland, Peter N, 1994. "Money and Growth: An Alternative Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 47-65, March.
- Paul Gomme, 1991.
"Money and growth revisited,"
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics
55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Gomme, Paul, 1993. "Money and growth revisited : Measuring the costs of inflation in an endogenous growth model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 51-77, August.
- V.V. Chari & Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli, 1996.
"Inflation, growth, and financial intermediation,"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 41-58.
- Robert E. Lucas, Jr., 2000. "Inflation and Welfare," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 247-274, March.
- Dotsey, Michael & Sarte, Pierre Daniel, 2000. "Inflation uncertainty and growth in a cash-in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 631-655, June.
- Ahmed, Shaghil & Rogers, John H., 2000.
"Inflation and the great ratios: Long term evidence from the U.S,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 3-35, February.
- Shaghil Ahmed & John H. Rogers, 1998. "Inflation and the great ratios: long-term evidence from the U.S," International Finance Discussion Papers 628, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2001n12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Abbey Treloar)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.