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A compared R&D-based and patent-based cross impact analysis for identifying relationships between technologies

Author

Listed:
  • D. THORLEUCHTER
  • D. VAN DEN POEL

    ()

  • A. PRINZIE
  • -

Abstract

The planning of technological research and development (R&D) is demanding in areas with many relationships between technologies. To support decision makers of a government organization with R&D planning in these areas, a methodology to make the technology impact more transparent is introduced. The method shows current technology impact and impact trends from the R&D of an organization's competitors and compares these to the technology impact and impact trends from the organization's own R&D. This way, relative strength, relative weakness, plus parity of the organization's R&D activities in technology pairs can be identified. A quantitative cross impact analysis (CIA) approach is used to estimate the impact across technologies. Our quantitative CIA approach contrasts to standard qualitative CIA approaches that estimate technology impact by means of literature surveys and expert interviews. In this paper, the impact is computed based on the R&D information regarding the respective organization on one hand, and based on patent data representative regarding R&D information of the organization's competitors on the other hand. As an illustration, the application field 'defence' is used, where many interrelations and interdependencies between defence-based technologies occur. Firstly, an R&D-based and patent-based Compared Cross Impact (CCI) among technologies is computed. Secondly, characteristics of the CCI are identified. Thirdly, the CCI data is presented as a network to show the overall structure and the complex relationships between the technologies. Finally, changes of the CCI are analyzed over time. The results show that the proposed methodology generates useful insights for government organizations to direct technology investments.

Suggested Citation

  • D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel & A. Prinzie & -, 2010. "A compared R&D-based and patent-based cross impact analysis for identifying relationships between technologies," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 10/632, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  • Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:10/632
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    File URL: http://wps-feb.ugent.be/Papers/wp_10_632.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. K. Coussement & D. Van Den Poel, 2008. "Integrating the Voice of Customers through Call Center Emails into a Decision Support System for Churn Prediction," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/502, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    2. Caselles-Moncho, Antonio, 1986. "An empirical comparison of cross-impact models for forecasting sales," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 295-303.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gauch, Stephan & Blind, Knut, 2015. "Technological convergence and the absorptive capacity of standardisation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 236-249.
    2. Altuntas, Serkan & Dereli, Turkay & Kusiak, Andrew, 2015. "Analysis of patent documents with weighted association rules," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 249-262.
    3. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "Technology Classification with Latent Semantic Indexing," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/814, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    4. Haegeman, Karel & Marinelli, Elisabetta & Scapolo, Fabiana & Ricci, Andrea & Sokolov, Alexander, 2013. "Quantitative and qualitative approaches in Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): From combination to integration?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 386-397.
    5. Venugopalan, Subhashini & Rai, Varun, 2015. "Topic based classification and pattern identification in patents," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 236-250.
    6. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel, 2013. "Semantic Compared Cross Impact Analysis," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/862, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    7. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "Improved Multilevel Security with Latent Semantic Indexing," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/811, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    8. repec:gam:jsusta:v:8:y:2016:i:5:p:474:d:69917 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Joung, Junegak & Kim, Kwangsoo, 2017. "Monitoring emerging technologies for technology planning using technical keyword based analysis from patent data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 281-292.
    10. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel & A. Prinzie, 2011. "Analyzing existing customers’ websites to improve the customer acquisition process as well as the profitability prediction in B-to-B marketing," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/733, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    11. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "Protecting Research and Technology from Espionage," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/824, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    12. Jongchan Kim & Joonhyuck Lee & Gabjo Kim & Sangsung Park & Dongsik Jang, 2016. "A Hybrid Method of Analyzing Patents for Sustainable Technology Management in Humanoid Robot Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(5), pages 1-14, May.
    13. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel, 2013. "Quantitative Cross Impact Analysis with Latent Semantic Indexing," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/861, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    14. repec:eee:infome:v:11:y:2017:i:2:p:511-529 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel, 2013. "Weak Signal Identification with Semantic Web Mining," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/860, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Compared cross impact; Cross impact analysis; Technological impact analysis; R&D; Patent analysis; Defence Taxonomy; Centroid Vector; Machine Learning; Multi Label Classification;

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