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The AXIOM approach for probabilistic and causal modeling with expert elicited inputs

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  • Panula-Ontto, Juha

Abstract

Expert informants can be used as the principal information source in the modeling of socio-techno-economic systems or problems to support planning, foresight and decision-making. Such modeling is theory-driven, grounded in expert judgment and understanding, and can be contrasted with data-driven modeling approaches. Several families of approaches exist to enable expert elicited systems modeling with varying input information requirements and analytical ambitions.

Suggested Citation

  • Panula-Ontto, Juha, 2019. "The AXIOM approach for probabilistic and causal modeling with expert elicited inputs," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 292-308.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:138:y:2019:i:c:p:292-308
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2018.10.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Panula-Ontto, J. & Piirainen, K.A., 2018. "EXIT: An alternative approach for structural cross-impact modeling and analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 89-100.
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