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Thesenpapier: Constructing Consistent Energy Scenarios using Cross Impact Matrices

Author

Listed:
  • Roland Broll
  • Gerald Blumberg
  • Christoph Weber

    (Chair for Management Sciences and Energy Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen (Campus Essen))

Abstract

The ongoing transformation process towards a low or even zero emission energy system is facing a steadily increasing complexity, notably through variable renewable energies and sector coupling. At the same time, the necessity for long-term decisions associated with high capital costs remains. Hence methods are desirable that help decision makers to manage the broad range of possible futures without overly simplifying the interplay of multiple developments in many societal, technological, and economic fields. This requires the inclusion of expert knowledge from different domains without putting an excessive workload on these experts. The paper at hand proposes an efficient two stage approach to derive a limited set of scenarios. In the first step, the focus is on establishing the key causal relationships and derive the key exogenous drivers for future developments. In the second step, their interdependency is then assessed in more detail and consistent scenarios are derived. The approach builds on two existing methods, the ADVanced Impact ANalysis (ADVIAN) and the Cross impact balances analysis (CIB), yet these are refined and tailored both in terms of improved computation approaches and advanced assessment indicators. The newly developed approach is applied to the case of network extension planning as this is characterized by both significant complexity increases and longterm investment decisions under high uncertainty. Starting with many potential driving factors, just a few key exogenous drivers are identified and four consistent scenarios up to the year 2050 are derived with a limited amount of expert assessment workload. The methodology enables thus the development of consistent socio techno economic scenarios that may also serve as framework for more detailed model-based assessments of energy system developments.

Suggested Citation

  • Roland Broll & Gerald Blumberg & Christoph Weber, "undated". "Thesenpapier: Constructing Consistent Energy Scenarios using Cross Impact Matrices," EWL Working Papers 2005, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:dui:wpaper:2005
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Panula-Ontto, Juha & Luukkanen, Jyrki & Kaivo-oja, Jari & O'Mahony, Tadhg & Vehmas, Jarmo & Valkealahti, Seppo & Björkqvist, Tomas & Korpela, Timo & Järventausta, Pertti & Majanne, Yrjö & Kojo, Matti , 2018. "Cross-impact analysis of Finnish electricity system with increased renewables: Long-run energy policy challenges in balancing supply and consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 504-513.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    energy scenarios; cross impact matrix; indirect and direct impacts; scenario-reduction; consistent scenarios;
    All these keywords.

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