On estimating the conditional expected shortfall
Unlike the value at risk, the expected shortfall is a coherent measure of risk. In this paper, we discuss estimation of the expected shortfall of a random variable Yt with special reference to the case when auxiliary information is available in the form of a set of predictors Xt. We consider three classes of estimators of the conditional expected shortfall of Yt given Xt: a class of fully non-parametric estimators and two classes of analog estimators based, respectively, on the empirical conditional quantile function and the empirical conditional distribution function. We study their sampling properties by means of a set of Monte Carlo experiments and analyze their performance in an empirical application to financial data.
|Date of creation:||14 Jul 2008|
|Date of revision:||14 Jul 2008|
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- Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean-Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228.
- Shorrocks, Anthony F, 1983. "Ranking Income Distributions," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 50(197), pages 3-17, February.
- Peracchi, Franco, 2002. "On estimating conditional quantiles and distribution functions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 433-447, February.
- Carlo Acerbi & Dirk Tasche, 2001.
"On the coherence of Expected Shortfall,"
cond-mat/0104295, arXiv.org, revised May 2002.
- Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
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