Asymptotically efficient estimation of the conditional expected shortfall
A procedure for efficient estimation of the trimmed mean of a random variable conditional on a set of covariates is proposed. For concreteness, the focus is on a financial application where the trimmed mean of interest corresponds to the conditional expected shortfall, which is known to be a coherent risk measure. The proposed class of estimators is based on representing the estimator as an integral of the conditional quantile function. Relative to the simple analog estimator that weights all conditional quantiles equally, asymptotic efficiency gains may be attained by giving different weights to the different conditional quantiles while penalizing excessive departures from uniform weighting. The approach presented here allows for either parametric or nonparametric modeling of the conditional quantiles and the weights, but is essentially nonparametric in spirit. The asymptotic properties of the proposed class of estimators are established. Their finite sample properties are illustrated through a set of Monte Carlo experiments and an empirical application11The Stata and Matlab codes used in the simulations and in the empirical analysis are available as annexes to the electronic version of the paper..
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Yaari, Menahem E, 1987. "The Dual Theory of Choice under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(1), pages 95-115, January.
- Foresi, S. & Paracchi, F., 1992. "The Conditional Distribution of Excess Returns: An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 92-49, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Drazen Prelec, 1998. "The Probability Weighting Function," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(3), pages 497-528, May.
- Victor Chernozhukov & Ivan Fernandez-Val & Alfred Galichon, 2007.
"Quantile and probability curves without crossing,"
CeMMAP working papers
CWP10/07, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Victor Chernozhukov & Ivan Fernandez-Val & Alfred Galichon, 2007. "Quantile And Probability Curves Without Crossing," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2007-011, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Victor Chernozhukov & Ivan Fernandez-Val & Alfred Galichon, 2010. "Quantile and Probability Curves without Crossing," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5rkqqmvrn4t, Sciences Po.
- Peracchi, Franco, 2002. "On estimating conditional quantiles and distribution functions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 433-447, February.
- Carlo Acerbi & Dirk Tasche, 2001.
"On the coherence of Expected Shortfall,"
cond-mat/0104295, arXiv.org, revised May 2002.
- Acerbi, Carlo, 2002. "Spectral measures of risk: A coherent representation of subjective risk aversion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1505-1518, July.
- Moller, Jan Kloppenborg & Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg & Madsen, Henrik, 2008. "Time-adaptive quantile regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 1292-1303, January.
- Peter Hall & Rodney C. L. Wolff & Qiwei Yao, 1999. "Methods for estimating a conditional distribution function," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6631, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521608275 is not listed on IDEAS
- Toshio Honda, 2000. "Nonparametric Estimation of a Conditional Quantile for α-Mixing Processes," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 459-470, September.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521845731 is not listed on IDEAS
- McNeil, Alexander J. & Frey, Rudiger, 2000. "Estimation of tail-related risk measures for heteroscedastic financial time series: an extreme value approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 271-300, November.
- Cai, Zongwu & Wang, Xian, 2008. "Nonparametric estimation of conditional VaR and expected shortfall," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 120-130, November.
- Joshua Angrist & Victor Chernozhukov & Ivan Fernandez-Val, 2004.
"Quantile Regression under Misspecification, with an Application to the U.S. Wage Structure,"
NBER Working Papers
10428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Joshua Angrist & Victor Chernozhukov & Iván Fernández-Val, 2006. "Quantile Regression under Misspecification, with an Application to the U.S. Wage Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(2), pages 539-563, 03.
- Bertsimas, Dimitris & Lauprete, Geoffrey J. & Samarov, Alexander, 2004. "Shortfall as a risk measure: properties, optimization and applications," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1353-1381, April.
- Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean-Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228.
- Fitzenberger, Bernd, 1998. "The moving blocks bootstrap and robust inference for linear least squares and quantile regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 235-287, February.
- Franco Peracchi & Andrei V. Tanase, 2008. "On estimating the conditional expected shortfall," CEIS Research Paper 122, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 14 Jul 2008.
- Huixia Judy Wang & Xiao-Hua Zhou, 2010. "Estimation of the retransformed conditional mean in health care cost studies," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 97(1), pages 147-158.
- Cai, Zongwu, 2002. "Regression Quantiles For Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(01), pages 169-192, February.
- Giuseppe De Luca, 2008. "SNP and SML estimation of univariate and bivariate binary-choice models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 8(2), pages 190-220, June.
- Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:56:y:2012:i:4:p:768-784. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.