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Distribution and Cost-Push inflation in Brazil under inflation targeting, 1999-2014

Author

Listed:
  • Franklin Serrano

    (Federal University of Rio de Janeiro)

  • Ricardo Summa

    (Federal University of Rio de Janeiro)

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the evolution of Brazilian inflation under the inflation targeting system from a cost-push perspective. We identify the main features of three quite distinct phases (1999-2003, 2004-2009 and 2010-2014) and explain them in terms of tradable price trends in local currency, changes in the dynamics of monitored prices and behavior of wage inflation. We conclude that the trend towards continuous nominal exchange rate devaluation after mid-2011, together with the strengthening of the bargaining power of workers and the trend of rising real wages since 2006, means that distributive conflicts in Brazil are getting much more intense. We also suggest that the apparently very irrational recent (early 2015) change in the orientation of economic policy towards contractionary fiscal, incomes and monetary policies in a stagnating economy seems to be ultimately based on the desire to weaken the bargaining power of workers that was much strengthened during the brief but intense Brazilian “golden age” of 2004-2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Franklin Serrano & Ricardo Summa, 2015. "Distribution and Cost-Push inflation in Brazil under inflation targeting, 1999-2014," Centro Sraffa Working Papers CSWP14, Centro di Ricerche e Documentazione "Piero Sraffa".
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:sraffa:0014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Ariel Dvoskin & Germán David Feldman & Guido Ianni, 2020. "New‐structuralist exchange‐rate policy and the pattern of specialization in Latin American countries," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(1), pages 22-48, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cost-Push inflation; Inflation Target System; Functional Income Distribution; Brazilian Economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B51 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Socialist; Marxian; Sraffian
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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