IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/nereus/2005_007.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Investment Decisions in Troubled Times: a Bayesian Approach Applied to Brazilian Firms

Author

Listed:
  • E. G. Kalatzis, Aquiles
  • R. Azzoni, Carlos

    (Departamento de Economia, Universidade de São Paulo)

  • A. Achcar, Jorge

Abstract

This study analyses the investment decision of 497 Brazilian firms during a period of unstable macroeconomic conditions. The role of financial constraints is considered in a Bayesian econometric model. We use panel data, with firm-specific information for different years. We estimate three different models, and the results indicate the presence of financial restrictions, especially for capital-intensive firms. The recursive predictive density criterion indicates that the most preferred model is the one in which firm-specific effects are correlated with cash flow. Financial restrictions are more important for capital-intensive firms, probably due to their lower profitability indexes, higher fixed costs and higher degree of property diversification.

Suggested Citation

  • E. G. Kalatzis, Aquiles & R. Azzoni, Carlos & A. Achcar, Jorge, 2005. "Investment Decisions in Troubled Times: a Bayesian Approach Applied to Brazilian Firms," TD NEREUS 7-2005, Núcleo de Economia Regional e Urbana da Universidade de São Paulo (NEREUS).
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:nereus:2005_007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.usp.br/nereus/wp-content/uploads/TDNereus_07_05.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: ris
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hsiao, Cheng & Hashem Pesaran, M. & Kamil Tahmiscioglu, A., 2002. "Maximum likelihood estimation of fixed effects dynamic panel data models covering short time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 107-150, July.
    2. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June.
    3. Steven M. Fazzari & Bruce C. Petersen, 1993. "Working Capital and Fixed Investment: New Evidence on Financing Constraints," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 24(3), pages 328-342, Autumn.
    4. Stewart C. Myers & Nicholas S. Majluf, 1984. "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have InformationThat Investors Do Not Have," NBER Working Papers 1396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Titman, Sheridan & Wessels, Roberto, 1988. " The Determinants of Capital Structure Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(1), pages 1-19, March.
    6. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1996. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods in Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 409-431, August.
    7. Ross Levine & Norman Loayza & Thorsten Beck, 2002. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 031-084, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Robert G. King & Ross Levine, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 717-737.
    9. Nerlove,Marc, 2005. "Essays in Panel Data Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521022460.
    10. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
    11. Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June.
    12. Albert O. Hirschman & Gerald Sirkin, 1958. "Investment Criteria and Capital Intensity Once Again," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 72(3), pages 469-471.
    13. Huntley Schaller, 1993. "Asymmetric Information, Liquidity Constraints and Canadian Investment," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 26(3), pages 552-574, August.
    14. Schiantarelli, Fabio, 1996. "Financial Constraints and Investment: Methodological Issues and International Evidence," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 12(2), pages 70-89, Summer.
    15. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1998. "Financial Dependence and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 559-586, June.
    16. Takeo Hoshi & Anil Kashyap & David Scharfstein, 1991. "Corporate Structure, Liquidity, and Investment: Evidence from Japanese Industrial Groups," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(1), pages 33-60.
    17. Dale W. Jorgenson, 1996. "Investment - Vol. 1: Capital Theory and Investment Behavior," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100568, December.
    18. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1996. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment: Response to Kaplan and Zingales," NBER Working Papers 5462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Khurana, Inder K. & Martin, Xiumin & Pereira, Raynolde, 2006. "Financial Development and the Cash Flow Sensitivity of Cash," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(4), pages 787-808, December.
    20. Abel, Andrew B & Blanchard, Olivier J, 1986. "The Present Value of Profits and Cyclical Movements in Investment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(2), pages 249-273, March.
    21. Heitor Almeida & Murillo Campello & Michael S. Weisbach, 2004. "The Cash Flow Sensitivity of Cash," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1777-1804, August.
    22. Michael Devereux & Fabio Schiantarelli, 1990. "Investment, Financial Factors, and Cash Flow: Evidence from U.K. Panel Data," NBER Chapters, in: Asymmetric Information, Corporate Finance, and Investment, pages 279-306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Stephen Bond & Costas Meghir, 1994. "Dynamic Investment Models and the Firm's Financial Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(2), pages 197-222.
    24. Hafer, R W & Jansen, Dennis W, 1991. "The Demand for Money in the United States: Evidence from Cointegration Tests," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 155-168, May.
    25. Yair Mundlak, 1961. "Empirical Production Function Free of Management Bias," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 43(1), pages 44-56.
    26. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen & Devereux, Michael & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 1992. "Investment and Tobin's Q: Evidence from company panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 233-257.
    27. Tahmiscioglu, A Kamil, 2001. "Intertemporal Variation in Financial Constraints on Investment: A Time-Varying Parameter Approach Using Panel Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 153-165, April.
    28. Fabio Schiantarelli & Xiaoqiang Hu, 1994. "Investment and Financing Constraints: A Switching Regression Approach Using U.S. Firm Panel Data," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 284., Boston College Department of Economics.
    29. Kiviet, Jan F., 1995. "On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 53-78, July.
    30. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1990. "Peer Monitoring and Credit Markets," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 4(3), pages 351-366, September.
    31. Xiaoqiang Hu & Fabio Schiantarelli, 1998. "Investment And Capital Market Imperfections: A Switching Regression Approach Using U.S. Firm Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 466-479, August.
    32. Steven N. Kaplan & Luigi Zingales, 1997. "Do Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivities Provide Useful Measures of Financing Constraints?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(1), pages 169-215.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bassetto, Camila F. & Kalatzis, Aquiles E.G., 2011. "Financial distress, financial constraint and investment decision: Evidence from Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 264-271.
    2. Aquiles Kalatzis & Aline Pellicani, Dante Mendes Aldrighi, 2019. "Family control, pyramidal ownership and investment-cash flow sensitivity: evidence from an emerging economy," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2019_12, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    3. Bassetto, Camila F. & Kalatzis, Aquiles E.G., 2011. "Financial distress, financial constraint and investment decision: Evidence from Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 264-271, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1998. "Capital-Market Imperfections and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 193-225, March.
    2. Valentina Peruzzi, 2017. "Does family ownership structure affect investment-cash flow sensitivity? Evidence from Italian SMEs," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(43), pages 4378-4393, September.
    3. Günay, Hüseyin & Kılınç, Mustafa, 2015. "Credit market imperfections and business cycle asymmetries in Turkey," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 79-98.
    4. Kotaro Tsuru, 2000. "Finance and Growth: Some Theoretical Considerations and a Review of the Empirical Literature," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 228, OECD Publishing.
    5. Laeven, Luc, 2000. "Does financial liberalization relax financing constraints on firms ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2467, The World Bank.
    6. Jason G. Cummins & Kevin A. Hassett & Stephen D. Oliner, 2006. "Investment Behavior, Observable Expectations, and Internal Funds," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 796-810, June.
    7. Degryse, H.A. & de Jong, A., 2000. "Investment Spending in the Netherlands : The Impact of Liquidity and Corporate Governance," Other publications TiSEM 031a2179-910f-47da-a339-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Kadapakkam, Palani-Rajan & Kumar, P. C. & Riddick, Leigh A., 1998. "The impact of cash flows and firm size on investment: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 293-320, March.
    9. Anna GIUNTA & Domenico SARNO, 2009. "Firm’S Financing And Industrial Structure In The Less Developed Regions Of The South Italy," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(4(10)_Win), pages 509-525.
    10. Hönig, Anja, 2012. "Financing Constraints Revisited - Is there a Role for Taxation and Internal Funds?," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 66053, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Koo, Jaewoon & Maeng, Kyunghee, 2005. "The effect of financial liberalization on firms' investments in Korea," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 281-297, April.
    12. Jean-Bernard Chatelain, 2003. "Structural modelling of financial constraints on investment: where do we stand?," Chapters, in: Paul Butzen & Catherine Fuss (ed.), Firms’ Investment and Finance Decisions, chapter 2, pages 40-58, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Schleicher, Thomas & Tahoun, Ahmed & Walker, Martin, 2010. "IFRS adoption in Europe and investment-cash flow sensitivity: Outsider versus insider economies," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 143-168, June.
    14. Hovakimian, Gayane & Titman, Sheridan, 2006. "Corporate Investment with Financial Constraints: Sensitivity of Investment to Funds from Voluntary Asset Sales," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 357-374, March.
    15. Ferrando, Annalisa & Martinez-Carrascal, Carmen & Coluzzi, Chiara, 2009. "Financing obstacles and growth: an analysis for euro area non-financial corporations," Working Paper Series 997, European Central Bank.
    16. Goergen, Marc & Renneboog, Luc, 2001. "Investment policy, internal financing and ownership concentration in the UK," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 257-284, September.
    17. Degryse, Hans & de Jong, Abe, 2006. "Investment and internal finance: Asymmetric information or managerial discretion?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 125-147, January.
    18. Brown, James R. & Martinsson, Gustav & Petersen, Bruce C., 2012. "Do financing constraints matter for R&D?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1512-1529.
    19. Malcolm Athaide & H. K. Pradhan, 0. "A model of credit constraint for MSMEs in India," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-19.
    20. Fernando N. de Oliveira, 2014. "Investment of Firms in Brazil: do financial restrictions, unexpected monetary shocks and BNDES play important roles?," Working Papers Series 366, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investment Decisions; Financial Restrictions; Panel Data; Capital Intensity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:nereus:2005_007. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Eduardo Amaral Haddad (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/neuspbr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.