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Will History Repeat Itself? Lessons for the Yuan

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  • Cohen, Benjamin J.

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

Abstract

For many observers, internationalization is the yuan’s manifest destiny and a by-product of the remarkable economic success of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). But is such confidence warranted? Recent history has seen the emergence of other currencies that were also expected, at least for a while, to attain wide, growing cross-border use. These included the deutsche mark (DM), the Japanese yen, and the euro (successor to the DM). Yet in the end, their internationalization reached an upper limit, short of expectations. Will history repeat itself? Or will the yuan prove exceptional, as the currency that finally managed to keep ascending where others faltered? The aim of this paper is to see what lessons may be drawn from these earlier experiences for the anticipated internationalization of the yuan.

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  • Cohen, Benjamin J., 2014. "Will History Repeat Itself? Lessons for the Yuan," ADBI Working Papers 453, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0453
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès & Forouheshfar, Yeganeh, 2015. "The impact of yuan internationalization on the stability of the international monetary system," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 115-135.
    2. Stefan Angrick, 2018. "Structural conditions for currency internationalization: international finance and the survival constraint," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(5), pages 699-725, September.
    3. Hyoung-kyu Chey, 2015. "Renminbi in Ordinary Economies: A Demand-side Study of Currency Globalization," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 23(3), pages 1-21, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    yuan; deutsche mark; japanese yen; euro; internationalization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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