A Quality-Adjusted Cost Index for Estimating Future Consumer Surplus from Innovation
This paper describes a model for estimating, in a probabilistic framework, expected future consumer surplus from planned new product innovations. The model has been applied to estimations of taxpayer benefits from NASA's New Millenium Program (NMP), which develops new technologies for space science, and to the digital data storage technologies being supported by the Department of Commerce's Advanced Technology Program (ATP). The model uses cost index methods based on consumers' estimated marginal valuation for quality improvements in the technology. Probabilistic values for performance increases are taken from the innovators' own expectations. The analysis reveals the sensitivity of welfare increases to these values, which are assumed to be biased upward. The cost index, when combined with an expected rate of adoption, estimates consumer benefits from the innovation, gross of its research and development costs. Benefits are estimated net of a dynamic baseline defined by the best available substitute technology, which is also assumed to improve over time. Findings are therefore expressed in terms of the economic value of the innovation to consumers, compared to advances that might occur in the absence of the NMP or ATP investments. Illustrative resultsestimated cost indices and 95% confidence boundsare presented for technologies that are expected to improve consumer welfare and for those that, on a quality-adjusted cost basis, are likely to be outperformed by the selected baseline technology.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- repec:ucp:bknber:9780226304557 is not listed on IDEAS
- James Quirk & Katsuaki Terasawa, 1986. "ple Selection and Cost Underestimation Bias in Pioneer Projects," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 62(2), pages 192-200.
- Hausman, Jerry, 1999.
"Cellular Telephone, New Products, and the CPI,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 17(2), pages 188-194, April.
- Jerry Hausman, 1997. "Cellular Telephone, New Products and the CPI," NBER Working Papers 5982, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chambers,Robert G., 1988. "Applied Production Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521314275, November.
- Caves, Douglas W & Christensen, Laurits R & Diewert, W Erwin, 1982. "The Economic Theory of Index Numbers and the Measurement of Input, Output, and Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1393-1414, November.
- Robert J. Gordon, 1990. "The Measurement of Durable Goods Prices," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord90-1, June.
- Bresnahan, Timothy F, 1986. "Measuring the Spillovers from Technical Advance: Mainframe Computers inFinancial Services," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 742-755, September. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-98-45. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Webmaster)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.