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Net leverage, risk, and credit spreads

  • Berardino Palazzo

    (Boston University, School of management)

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    This paper proposes a risk-based explanation of the negative relation between credit spreads and expected equity returns found in the data. In a model where issuing equity is costly and debt has a tax advantage, firms optimally choose a lower net leverage if their cash flows are more correlated to a source of aggregate fluctuations (i.e. if the firm is riskier), all else being equal. The model predicts that riskier firms have a lower net leverage and a lower credit spreads. I test these two predictions using data on U.S. public companies and I find that: (i) low net leverage firms earn a higher risk-adjusted return than high net leverage ones; (ii) risk-adjusted returns on net leverage sorted portfolios are negatively correlated to credit ratings (a proxy for credit spreads); and (iii) a net leverage-based factor has the potential to explain the variation in equity returns across portfolios sorted according to credit ratings.

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    File URL: https://www.economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2013/paper_436.pdf
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    Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2013 Meeting Papers with number 436.

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    Date of creation: 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:red:sed013:436
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Christian Zimmermann Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PO Box 442 St. Louis MO 63166-0442 USA
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