IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed010/1059.html

Learning About Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Gina Pieters

    (University of Minnesota)

  • Andy Glover

    (University of Minnesota)

Abstract

We introduce a model in which a consumers must learn whether a country's growth rate shock is permanent or transitory. We show that for developing countries, TFP growth rates have been highly volatile, while for developed country the growth rate is comparatively stable. This difference is sufficient to explain the allocation puzzle under the assumption that the initial correlation between forecasted and realized growth rates is negative. In addition, we document that the allocation puzzle puzzle decreases over time - the ten year correlation between inflows and growth rates is more negative than the twenty year correlation - in agreement with our model predictions. We interpret this as evidence that the learning mechanism underlying our model is relevant to understanding the differences in behavior of developed and developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Gina Pieters & Andy Glover, 2010. "Learning About Growth," 2010 Meeting Papers 1059, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed010:1059
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://red-files-public.s3.amazonaws.com/meetpapers/2010/paper_1059.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philippe Aghion & Diego Comin & Peter Howitt & Isabel Tecu, 2016. "When Does Domestic Savings Matter for Economic Growth?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 381-407, August.
    2. Caselli, Francesco, 2005. "Accounting for Cross-Country Income Differences," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 9, pages 679-741, Elsevier.
    3. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2007. "Foreign Capital and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 153-230.
    4. Ricardo Hausmann & Lant Pritchett & Dani Rodrik, 2005. "Growth Accelerations," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 303-329, December.
    5. Emine Boz & Christian Daude & Bora Durdu, 2008. "Emerging market business cycles revisited: learning about the trend," International Finance Discussion Papers 927, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
    7. Fatih Guvenen, 2007. "Learning Your Earning: Are Labor Income Shocks Really Very Persistent?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 687-712, June.
    8. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, "undated". "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
    9. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter J. Klenow, 2007. "Relative Prices and Relative Prosperity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 562-585, June.
    10. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Olivier Jeanne, 2013. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: The Allocation Puzzle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1484-1515.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Olivier Jeanne, 2013. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: The Allocation Puzzle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1484-1515.
    2. Gente, Karine & León-Ledesma, Miguel A. & Nourry, Carine, 2015. "External constraints and endogenous growth: Why didn't some countries benefit from capital flows?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 223-249.
    3. Benhima, Kenza, 2013. "A reappraisal of the allocation puzzle through the portfolio approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 331-346.
    4. Carroll, Christopher D. & Jeanne, Olivier, 2009. "A tractable model of precautionary reserves, net foreign assets, or sovereign wealth funds," CFS Working Paper Series 2009/15, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    5. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2006. "Patterns of international capital flows and their implications for economic development," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 119-158.
    6. Andrea Papetti, 2021. "Population aging, relative prices and capital flows across the globe," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1333, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Mehmet Fatih Ekinci & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Bent E. Sørensen, 2009. "Financial Integration within EU Countries: The Role of Institutions, Confidence and Trust," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2007, pages 325-391, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Francisco J. Buera & Yongseok Shin, 2017. "Productivity Growth and Capital Flows: The Dynamics of Reforms," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 147-185, July.
    9. Cozzi, Guido & Davenport, Margaret, 2015. "The Imbalanced Catch-up to Rational Expectations: Capital Flows during Convergence," MPRA Paper 71009, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Apr 2016.
    10. Friedrich, Christian & Schnabel, Isabel & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2013. "Financial integration and growth — Why is Emerging Europe different?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 522-538.
    11. Md Arif-Ur-Rahman & Kazuo Inaba, 2020. "Financial integration and total factor productivity: in consideration of different capital controls and foreign direct investment," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-20, December.
    12. Mariam Camarero & Jesús Peiró-Palomino & Cecilio Tamarit, 2017. "External imbalances and growth," Working Papers 2017/02, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    13. Agnieszka Gehringer, 2012. "Financial liberalization, growth, productivity and capital accumulation: The case of European integration," FIW Working Paper series 086, FIW.
    14. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian, 2009. "Why Did Financial Globalization Disappoint?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 112-138, April.
    15. Leonor Coutinho & Alessandro Turrini & Stefan Zeugner, 2018. "Methodologies for the Assessment of Current Account Benchmarks," European Economy - Discussion Papers 086, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    16. Philip R. Lane IIIS, Trinity College Dublin and CEPR, 2009. "Innovation and Financial Globalisation," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp299, IIIS.
    17. Camarero, Mariam & Peiró-Palomino, Jesús & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2019. "Growth in a time of external imbalances," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 262-275.
    18. Cozzi, Guido & Davenport, Margaret, 2017. "Extrapolative expectations and capital flows during convergence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 169-190.
    19. Carolina Alves & Vivienne Boufounou & Konstantinos Dellis & Christos Pitelis & Jan Toporowski, 2016. "Synthesis Report; Empirical analysis for new ways of global engagement," Working papers wpaper163, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed010:1059. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.