Learning About Growth
We introduce a model in which a consumers must learn whether a country's growth rate shock is permanent or transitory. We show that for developing countries, TFP growth rates have been highly volatile, while for developed country the growth rate is comparatively stable. This difference is sufficient to explain the allocation puzzle under the assumption that the initial correlation between forecasted and realized growth rates is negative. In addition, we document that the allocation puzzle puzzle decreases over time - the ten year correlation between inflows and growth rates is more negative than the twenty year correlation - in agreement with our model predictions. We interpret this as evidence that the learning mechanism underlying our model is relevant to understanding the differences in behavior of developed and developing countries.
|Date of creation:||2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Marina Azzimonti Department of Economics Stonybrook University 10 Nicolls Road Stonybrook NY 11790 USA|
Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Olivier Jeanne & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2005.
"Capital Flows to Developing Countries: the Allocation Puzzle,"
2005 Meeting Papers
240, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Olivier Jeanne, 2013. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: The Allocation Puzzle," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 1484-1515.
- Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Jeanne, Olivier, 2007. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: The Allocation Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 6561, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Olivier Jeanne, 2007. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: The Allocation Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 13602, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pierre-Olivier & Olivier Jeanne, 2009. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: The Allocation Puzzle," Working Paper Series WP09-12, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Emine Boz & Christian Daude & C. Bora Durdu, 2011.
"Emerging Market Business Cycles Revisited: Learning about the Trend,"
Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers
1110, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
- Emine Boz & Christian Daude & Ceyhun Bora Durdu, 2008. "Emerging market business cycles revisited: learning about the trend," International Finance Discussion Papers 927, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter J. Klenow, 2003.
"Relative prices and relative prosperity,"
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
- Fatih Guvenen, 2005.
"Learning Your Earning: Are Labor Income Shocks Really Very Persistent?,"
- Fatih Guvenen, 2007. "Learning Your Earning: Are Labor Income Shocks Really Very Persistent?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 687-712, June.
- Fatih Guvenen, 2006. "Learning your earning: are labor income shocks really very persistent?," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 145, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Prasad, Eswar & Rajan, Raghuram G. & Subramanian, Arvind, 2007.
"Foreign Capital and Economic Growth,"
IZA Discussion Papers
3186, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Ricardo Hausmann & Lant Pritchett & Dani Rodrik, 2004.
NBER Working Papers
10566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hausmann, Ricardo & Pritchett, Lant & Rodrik, Dani, 2004. "Growth Accelerations," Working Paper Series rwp04-030, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Hausmann, Ricardo & Pritchett, Lant & Rodrik, Dani, 2004. "Growth Accelerations," CEPR Discussion Papers 4538, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed010:1059. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Zimmermann)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.