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Information Percolation

Author

Listed:
  • Gustavo Manso

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Gaston Giroux

    (Unaffiliated)

  • Darrell Duffie

    (Stanford University)

Abstract

We study information percolation in a stylized over-the-counter market in which a large set of asymmetrically informed investors meet in small groups over time, exchanging information with their counterparties when matched, through for example their bids for an asset. We provide an explicit solution for the dynamic evolution of the cross-sectional distribution of posterior beliefs regarding the asset payoff. We calculate the rate of convergence of the cross-sectional distribution of beliefs to a common posterior. We show that this convergence rate does not depend on the size of the groups of investors that meet. The convergence rate is merely the mean aggregate meeting rate of the investor population.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustavo Manso & Gaston Giroux & Darrell Duffie, 2008. "Information Percolation," 2008 Meeting Papers 471, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed008:471
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    Cited by:

    1. Matan Harel & Elchanan Mossel & Philipp Strack & Omer Tamuz, 2021. "Rational Groupthink," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(1), pages 621-668.
      • Matan Harel & Elchanan Mossel & Philipp Strack & Omer Tamuz, 2014. "Rational Groupthink," Papers 1412.7172, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2020.
    2. Alain B'elanger & Gaston Giroux, 2012. "Information Percolation: Some General Cases with an Application to Econophysics," Papers 1202.5251, arXiv.org.
    3. Duffie, Darrell & Malamud, Semyon & Manso, Gustavo, 2014. "Information percolation in segmented markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 1-32.
    4. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2016. "Understanding Booms and Busts in Housing Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1088-1147.
    5. Levy, Gilat & Razin, Ronny, 2018. "Information diffusion in networks with the Bayesian Peer Influence heuristic," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86554, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Attanasi, Giuseppe & Centorrino, Samuele & Moscati, Ivan, 2016. "Over-the-counter markets vs. double auctions: A comparative experimental study," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 22-35.
    7. Rosenthal, Dale W.R. & Thomas, Nordia Diana Marie, 2012. "Transact taxes in a price maker/taker market," MPRA Paper 40556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Robert Shimer & Ivan Werning, 2019. "Efficiency and information transmission in bilateral trading," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 33, pages 154-176, July.
    9. Semih Üslü, 2019. "Pricing and Liquidity in Decentralized Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(6), pages 2079-2140, November.
    10. Mira Frick & Ryota Iijima & Yuhta Ishii, 2020. "Misinterpreting Others and the Fragility of Social Learning," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(6), pages 2281-2328, November.
    11. Andrei, Daniel & Cujean, Julien, 2017. "Information percolation, momentum and reversal," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(3), pages 617-645.
    12. Bulusu, Narayan, 2024. "Disentangling the supply and announcement effects of open market operations," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    13. Hu, May & Park, Jason & Chen, Jane & Verhoevenc, Peter, 2022. "Cross-market informed trading in the CDS and option markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    14. Duffie, Darrell & Malamud, Semyon & Manso, Gustavo, 2015. "Reprint of: Information percolation in segmented markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PB), pages 838-869.
    15. Choi, Michael, 2018. "Imperfect information transmission and adverse selection in asset markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 619-649.
    16. Zurita, Carlos A., 2022. "Is The Gravity Model a Power Law?: Evidence from Colombia," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322368, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Levy, Gilat & Razin, Ronny, 2018. "Information diffusion in networks with the Bayesian Peer Influence heuristic," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 262-270.
    18. Chague, Fernando & De-Losso, Rodrigo & De Genaro, Alan & Giovannetti, Bruno, 2017. "Well-connected short-sellers pay lower loan fees: A market-wide analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(3), pages 646-670.
    19. Keppo, Jussi & Satopää, Ville A., 2024. "Bayesian herd detection for dynamic data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 285-301.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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