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A simple time-insensitive index of instability as a proxy for the “Africa dummy” variable – A Note

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  • Amavilah, Voxi

Abstract

This paper calculates a simple time-insensitive index of instability using discrete series of events. The calculation of the index does not require complex statistical analysis of event series, discrete-event systems analysis, or categorical analysis. It uses a simple, single-equation regression to estimate the effects of instability on Africa’s per capita GDP over the 1961-2018 period. The results are mixed, with some showing that instability has constrained Africa’s performance and others implying it has helped. The findings are not quite econometrically pure, but reasonable given that many relevant variables are missing from the regression. Hence, I resist the temptation to comment further until at least conventional factors like capital are included in this regression, while I insist that the index itself is sound.

Suggested Citation

  • Amavilah, Voxi, 2019. "A simple time-insensitive index of instability as a proxy for the “Africa dummy” variable – A Note," MPRA Paper 96295, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:96295
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Englebert, Pierre, 2000. "Solving the Mystery of the AFRICA Dummy," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 1821-1835, October.
    2. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    3. Amavilah, Voxi Heinrich, 2018. "Endogenous constraints, coefficients of economic distance, and economic performance of African countries – An exploratory essay," MPRA Paper 90065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Matteo Mazziotta, Adriano Pareto, 2013. "Methods For Constructing Composite Indices: One For All Or All For One?," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 67(2), pages 67-80, April-Jun.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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