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Do Farmers Perceive the Trends of Local Climate Variability Accurately? An Analysis of Farmers’ Perceptions and Meteorological Data in Myanmar

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  • Hein, Yarzar
  • Vijitsrikamol, Kampanat
  • Attavanich, Witsanu
  • Janekarnkij, Penporn

Abstract

With the existing state of issues related to global climate change, the accuracy of farmers’ perceptions of climate is critically important if they plan to implement appropriate adaptation measures in their farming. This article evaluated if farmers perceive the trends of local climate variability accurately, and was verified by the historical meteorological data analysis. Ordered probit perception models were applied in this study to determine the factors influencing the accuracy of farmer perception. It was observed that farmers’ perceptions of the rainfall amount during the early, mid, and late monsoon periods were highly accurate, and they also accurately perceived summer temperature change, but less accuracy of perception was observed of the temperate changes of the winter and monsoon seasons. Access to weekly weather information, participation in agricultural trainings, farming experience, and education level of the farmer were the major factors determining the accuracy of perception in this study. Based on the empirical results, this study suggested policy implications for (a) the locally specified weather information distribution, and (b) integration of weather information into agricultural training programs, which are available to the farming community to enhance the government implantation of the Myanmar Climate Smart Agriculture Strategy and Myanmar Climate Change Master Plan 2018–2030.

Suggested Citation

  • Hein, Yarzar & Vijitsrikamol, Kampanat & Attavanich, Witsanu & Janekarnkij, Penporn, 2019. "Do Farmers Perceive the Trends of Local Climate Variability Accurately? An Analysis of Farmers’ Perceptions and Meteorological Data in Myanmar," MPRA Paper 93990, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2019.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:93990
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert Brulle & Jason Carmichael & J. Jenkins, 2012. "Shifting public opinion on climate change: an empirical assessment of factors influencing concern over climate change in the U.S., 2002–2010," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(2), pages 169-188, September.
    2. Oecd, 2009. "Climate Change and Africa," OECD Journal: General Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 2009(1), pages 5-35.
    3. Gbetibouo, Glwadys Aymone, 2009. "Understanding farmers' perceptions and adaptations to climate change and variability: The case of the Limpopo Basin, South Africa," IFPRI discussion papers 849, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    Cited by:

    1. Henning Tarp Jensen & Marcus Keogh-Brown & Finn Tarp, 2021. "Climate change and agricultural productivity in Myanmar: Application of a new computable general equilibrium (CGE) model," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-181, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. McCarl, Bruce A. & Yu, Chin-Hsien & Attavanich, Witsanu, 2021. "Climate Change Impacts and Strategies for Mitigation and Adaptation in Agriculture," MPRA Paper 107416, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Apr 2021.
    3. Bagus Setiabudi Wiwoho & Ike Sari Astuti & Purwanto Purwanto & Ifan Deffinika & Imam Abdul Gani Alfarizi & Hetty Rahmawati Sucahyo & Randhiki Gusti & Mochammad Tri Herwanto & Gilang Aulia Herlambang, 2023. "Assessing long-term rainfall trends and changes in a tropical watershed Brantas, Indonesia: an approach for quantifying the agreement among satellite-based rainfall data, ground rainfall data, and sma," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 2835-2862, July.
    4. Dessalegn Obsi Gemeda & Debela Hunde Feyssa & Weyessa Garedew, 2021. "Meteorological data trend analysis and local community perception towards climate change: a case study of Jimma City, Southwestern Ethiopia," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 5885-5903, April.
    5. Naser Valizadeh & Latif Haji & Masoud Bijani & Negin Fallah Haghighi & Mahsa Fatemi & Ants-Hannes Viira & Yenny Katherine Parra-Acosta & Alishir Kurban & Hossein Azadi, 2021. "Development of a Scale to Remove Farmers’ Sustainability Barriers to Meteorological Information in Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-18, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    accuracy of perception; climate trend; climate variability; Myanmar; ordered probit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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