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Shifting public opinion on climate change: an empirical assessment of factors influencing concern over climate change in the U.S., 2002–2010


  • Robert Brulle


  • Jason Carmichael


  • J. Jenkins



This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the factors affecting U.S. public concern about the threat of climate change between January 2002 and December 2010. Utilizing Stimson’s method of constructing aggregate opinion measures, data from 74 separate surveys over a 9-year period are used to construct quarterly measures of public concern over global climate change. We examine five factors that should account for changes in levels of concern: 1) extreme weather events, 2) public access to accurate scientific information, 3) media coverage, 4) elite cues, and 5) movement/countermovement advocacy. A time-series analysis indicates that elite cues and structural economic factors have the largest effect on the level of public concern about climate change. While media coverage exerts an important influence, this coverage is itself largely a function of elite cues and economic factors. Weather extremes have no effect on aggregate public opinion. Promulgation of scientific information to the public on climate change has a minimal effect. The implication would seem to be that information-based science advocacy has had only a minor effect on public concern, while political mobilization by elites and advocacy groups is critical in influencing climate change concern. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Brulle & Jason Carmichael & J. Jenkins, 2012. "Shifting public opinion on climate change: an empirical assessment of factors influencing concern over climate change in the U.S., 2002–2010," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(2), pages 169-188, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:114:y:2012:i:2:p:169-188
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0403-y

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Enns, Peter K. & Kellstedt, Paul M., 2008. "Policy Mood and Political Sophistication: Why Everybody Moves Mood," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(03), pages 433-454, July.
    2. William R. Lowry, 2008. "Disentangling Energy Policy from Environmental Policy," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1195-1211.
    3. Matthew E. Kahn & Matthew J. Kotchen, 2010. "Environmental Concern and the Business Cycle: The Chilling Effect of Recession," NBER Working Papers 16241, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Christopher P. Borick & Barry G. Rabe, 2010. "A Reason to Believe: Examining the Factors that Determine Individual Views on Global Warming," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 91(3), pages 777-800.
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