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Cointegration and Causality among Foreign Direct Investment in Tourism Sector, GDP, and Exchange Rate Volatility in Turkey

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  • Sekmen, Fuat

Abstract

The Granger-causality (GC) and error correction (ECM) techniques were applied 1980-2005 data for Turkey to examine cointegration and causality among foreign direct investment(FDI) in tourism sector, overall GDP, and exchange rate volatility (EX). According to the ECM technique, the hypothesis that “no cointegration” was rejected for all three variables. The GC results detect causality runs from one-way from GDP to FDI, but the GC results detect bi-directional causality between GDP and EX suggesting that GDP and EX are jointly determined, but one way causality running from FDI to EX.

Suggested Citation

  • Sekmen, Fuat, 2007. "Cointegration and Causality among Foreign Direct Investment in Tourism Sector, GDP, and Exchange Rate Volatility in Turkey," MPRA Paper 8736, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:8736
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8736/1/MPRA_paper_8736.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ethier, Wilfred, 1973. "International Trade and the Forward Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 494-503, June.
    2. Jong Il Choe, 2003. "Do Foreign Direct Investment and Gross Domestic Investment Promote Economic Growth?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 44-57, February.
    3. Giovannini, Alberto, 1988. "Exchange rates and traded goods prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 45-68, February.
    4. Romer, Paul, 1993. "Idea gaps and object gaps in economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 543-573, December.
    5. Alfaro, Laura & Chanda, Areendam & Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sayek, Selin, 2004. "FDI and economic growth: the role of local financial markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 89-112, October.
    6. Broll, Udo, 1994. "Foreign Production and Forward Markets," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(62), pages 1-6, June.
    7. Henrik Hansen & John Rand, 2006. "On the Causal Links Between FDI and Growth in Developing Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 21-41, January.
    8. Gagnon, Joseph E., 1993. "Exchange rate variability and the level of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3-4), pages 269-287, May.
    9. Borensztein, E. & De Gregorio, J. & Lee, J-W., 1998. "How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?1," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 115-135, June.
    10. Franke, Gunter, 1991. "Exchange rate volatility and international trading strategy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 292-307, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Victalice Ngimanang Achamoh & Francis Menjo Baye, 2016. "Implications Of Foreign Direct Investment, Financial Development And Real Exchange Rate For Economic Growth In Cameroon," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 1(35), pages 149-163, may.
    2. repec:gam:jecomi:v:6:y:2018:i:1:p:18-:d:136954 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Temiz, Dilek & Gökmen, Aytaç, 2014. "FDI inflow as an international business operation by MNCs and economic growth: An empirical study on Turkey," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 145-154.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegration; Causality; Vector Error Correction Model; Turkey;

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General

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