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A Long-Run Estimation of Natural Gas Demand in Indonesian Manufacturing Sector: Computable General Equilibrium Model Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Widodo, Tri
  • Fitrady, Ardyanto
  • Alim Rosyadi, Saiful
  • Erdyas Bimanatya, Traheka

Abstract

Domestic natural gas utilization in Indonesia suffers from lack of proper infrastructure and high transportation costs. The government might benefit from detailed estimation of demand to anticipate potentially fast-growing natural gas utilization in the future. Using Global Trade Analysis Project - Energy (GTAP-E) model simulation, this paper attempts to present a long-run estimation of natural gas demand in manufacturing sector for year 2025, 2030, and 2035. Chemical industry will remain the largest user of natural gas, followed by electricity, basic metal, and metal industry. To meet these demand, domestic production of natural gas should increase by 36.7 percent and 99.49 percent in 2025 and 2035, respectively. It brings us to the urge of massive investments in natural gas production and distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Widodo, Tri & Fitrady, Ardyanto & Alim Rosyadi, Saiful & Erdyas Bimanatya, Traheka, 2018. "A Long-Run Estimation of Natural Gas Demand in Indonesian Manufacturing Sector: Computable General Equilibrium Model Approach," MPRA Paper 86887, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:86887
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/86887/1/MPRA_paper_86887.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Terrie Walmsley, 1998. "LONG-RUN SIMULATIONS WITH GTAP: Illustrative Results from APEC Trade Liberalisation," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers ip-70, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    2. Andersen, Trude Berg & Nilsen, Odd Bjarte & Tveteras, Ragnar, 2011. "How is demand for natural gas determined across European industrial sectors?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5499-5508, September.
    3. Ramesh Bhatia, 1987. "Energy Demand Analysis in Developing Countries: A Review," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 1-34.
    4. Burfisher,Mary E., 2011. "Introduction to Computable General Equilibrium Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766968, December.
    5. McDougall, Robert & Alla Golub, 2007. "GTAP-E: A Revised Energy-Environmental Version of the GTAP Model," GTAP Research Memoranda 2959, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    6. Burfisher,Mary E., 2011. "Introduction to Computable General Equilibrium Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521139779, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    natural gas; GTAP-E Model; energy demand;

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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