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Socioeconomic Determinants for Regional Variation of Crime in Germany

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  • Umbach, Tim

Abstract

This work explores which spatial patterns of crime exist in Germany and what their socio-economic determinants are. This is done using the PKS crime statistic for six types of crime on the county level for the years 2003-2014. To the authors knowledge, this is the first time crime in Germany has been studied with such granular data on such a broad scale. Due to the granularity of the data set, spatial dependencies of crime and its covariates became very apparent, which made it necessary to use a random effects spatial durbin model (SDM) to model regional variation of crime. With this, I was able to show that the factors explaining crime in one county also spill-over and affect crime in a neighboring one. To my knowledge, this hasn't been done before either for Germany. Also, I was able to confirm earlier findings that the Becker-Ehrlich model works well explaining property crime in Germany and the social disorganization theory explaining violent and drug crime, with the routine activity mostly working in both cases. Also as a first for Germany, there is some evidence that the broken-window theory applies and that disorder can drive crime to an extend.

Suggested Citation

  • Umbach, Tim, 2017. "Socioeconomic Determinants for Regional Variation of Crime in Germany," MPRA Paper 85499, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:85499
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Entorf, Horst & Spengler, Hannes, 2000. "Socioeconomic and demographic factors of crime in Germany: Evidence from panel data of the German states," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 75-106, March.
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    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy
    • K4 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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